Colts vs. Broncos Best Bets - Trust Taylor, Fade Nix

The Indianapolis Colts versus Denver Broncos battle will feature prominent ground attacks to bet on.

Sep 7, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) runs during the first half against the Miami Dolphins at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Week 2 player props are live, and it’s time to dive into the Indianapolis Colts–Denver Broncos betting angles for Sunday’s 4:05 p.m. kickoff. After a dominating Week 1 performance, Indianapolis now faces a tall task against a ferocious Denver defense.

The first thing to remember is not to get caught in the Week 1 trap. Overreactions are everywhere, and if you bet the rest of the season solely off what you saw in the opener, you’re going to get burned. The real value comes from identifying where a team looked uncomfortable and projecting how the coaching staff will adjust.

Sep 7, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen during the second half against the Miami Dolphins at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Let’s look at Shane Steichen and how he’ll approach this matchup. His approach has less to do
with what Indianapolis did against Miami and more to do with what Denver’s defense showed
against Tennessee.

The Broncos blitzed at the third-highest rate in the league last week, and that matters because
Daniel Jones ranked 31st out of 32 quarterbacks against the blitz (via PFF). Steichen isn’t going
to put his quarterback in that spot over and over. Expect him to lean heavily on his star back,
Jonathan Taylor.

His line—Over 89.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)—fits the plan of attacking Denver with traps, screens, and routes out of the backfield designed to punish Denver’s aggression.

Jonathan Taylor learned to catch in the offseason.#Colts#ForTheShoe#Dolphins#MIAvsIND pic.twitter.com/YccLi6AMuj

— Chris Shepherd (@NFLscheme) September 7, 2025

That number has hit in six straight games and 71% of Taylor’s 2024 season (via Props.Cash).
Against Denver last year, he blew past that line with 111 total yards on 22 carries and two
catches.

Taylor could clear it on the ground alone. His line of Over 77.5 rushing yards (-115) has hit in
four of his last five and 71% of last year’s games. Another line to watch is Taylor Over 19.5 rushing attempts (-120).

That’s also hit in four of his last five and 71% of his 2024 season. With Denver bringing heat, Steichen will almost certainly turn to Taylor to control the flow of the game.

Now that we’ve looked at Steichen’s likely game plan, it’s time to turn to Sean Payton and how he’ll approach this matchup.

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That’s where I see an opportunity with Bo Nix Under 230.5 passing yards (-110). He has cleared that number in only 37% of his first 19 career games in the NFL.

Sep 7, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) rushes the ball against the Tennessee Titans in the second half at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Plus, Nix looked rattled against a shaky Tennessee Titans defense in Week 1, finishing with a 60.0 passer rating on 176 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. That’s a steep drop from his 93.3 average QB rating in 2024.

A veteran coach like Payton isn’t going to ignore it. He’s going to protect his young
quarterback. Expect him to lean on the ground game just like he did in Week 1, when J.K.
Dobbins and RJ Harvey combined for 133 yards.

More importantly, even without Charvarius Ward, Cam Bynum, and Xavien Howard last year, the
Colts still held Nix to 130 passing yards in their 2024 matchup. It’s tough to see Payton pushing
the passing game as much here, which makes the under a strong play.

If Payton shifts away from the pass, the Denver rushing props become a lot more interesting.
Dobbins Over 46.5 rushing yards (-115) stands out after he dominated touches against
Tennessee with 16 carries to Harvey’s six. He’s averaged 67.8 yards per game over his last 20,
and that line of 46.5 has hit 70% of the time.

Another sneaky angle is Nix Over 17.5 rushing yards (-110). He’s hit that line in seven straight games, and with the Colts’ defensive line bringing pressure, he’s going to be forced to scramble.

That sets up nicely for another over and paints a picture of Denver adjusting by leaning less on Nix’s arm and more on the ground game.

When you put it all together—Nix’s shaky Week 1, Payton’s history of leaning on the run when his quarterbacks struggle, and Steichen’s tendency to counter heavy blitz teams with Taylor—the picture becomes clearer.

The sharp money leans away from Nix through the air, toward Denver’s rushing game, and squarely on Taylor to carry the Colts against an overzealous Broncos defense.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know
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