Colts' Limited Offense Reveals Clear Betting Value vs. 49ers

Philip Rivers under center points to limited explosiveness, conservative offense, and value hiding in plain sight.

Dec 14, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Philip Rivers (17) walks to the huddle during the first quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Ng-Imagn Images | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

It looks like the Indianapolis Colts are rolling with Philip Rivers again for their Monday night matchup against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16. That gives us another interesting slate of bets to examine as Vegas continues adjusting to whatever direction the Colts’ front office is leaning.

indiana nights : MNF edition pic.twitter.com/CZWjXkcE95

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) December 17, 2025

To begin, I just don’t see a world where the Colts consistently generate offense with Philip Rivers at the helm. Expect Indianapolis to try to drag San Francisco into muddy waters, turning this game into a time-of-possession grind and a true war of attrition.

With that in mind, we’re looking at some unconventional props for this Colts offense.

I absolutely love Colts Kicker Blake Grupe Over 1.5 made field goals (-137). Grupe drilled three field goals last game, and I fully expect the Colts’ inability to find the end zone to continue. That should lead to Grupe cleaning up a couple of stalled red-zone possessions.

Grupe has hit 19 field goals over his last 10 outings and is primed to clear his 1.5 line at Lucas Oil Stadium on Monday night.

New team, new record.#Colts kicker Blake Grupe booted the longest field goal in franchise history on Sunday — a 60-yd field goal in just his 2nd game with the team.

The previous record was 58 yards held by Dan Miller in 1982 with the Baltimore Colts. pic.twitter.com/pYNvmENn7f

— Kicker Update (@kickerupdate) December 16, 2025

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That is the perfect segue into our next play: Over 3.5 combined field goals made between the two teams (-105). Grupe and Piñeiro have combined for 11 total field goals over the last two games, and this matchup aligns with a slow, methodical script driven by field-goal attempts.

Next, we’re looking at Colts QB Philip Rivers’ longest pass Under 27.5 yards (-110). His longest completion last game was 17 yards, and if you watched him attempt to push the ball downfield, you would likely agree that 27.5 feels close to physically impossible.

I could see a screen or short underneath route breaking off, but I’m comfortable with this number staying under 28.

Now, let’s pivot to some San Francisco props.

There is value in 49ers QB Brock Purdy Over 9.5 rushing yards (-110). He has hit this line in 16 of his last 20 games and logged 44 rushing yards last week against Tennessee.

Dec 14, 2025; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) runs with the ball during the first quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images | Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

For our final prop, we’re targeting 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey Over 38.5 receiving yards (-113). The Indianapolis linebacking core simply is not good in coverage, and that mismatch should show up consistently throughout the night.

McCaffrey has cleared 38.5 receiving yards in 12 of 14 games this season. That screams value.

Everything about this matchup points toward a conservative game flow marked by limited explosiveness and stalled possessions. That kind of environment shifts value toward kickers and reliable short-area volume.

If the Colts stick to their plan of shortening the game and avoiding mistakes, these bets align cleanly with both teams’ tendencies. It may not be pretty football, but from a betting standpoint, the board offers clear opportunities.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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