Colts' Season Closer with Texans Has Betting Value Written All Over It

Week 18 brings low stakes for the Indianapolis Colts and high urgency for the Houston Texans, creating sneaky value.

Dec 28, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Riley Leonard (15) warms up before a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Week 18 against the Houston Texans might be meaningless in the standings for the Indianapolis Colts, but it is not meaningless inside the building.

Between future evaluations and players fighting for contracts, this game carries real weight for Indianapolis.

Houston, meanwhile, has a lot on the line. The Texans are playing for playoff seeding, with a win potentially securing the fifth seed and a loss dropping them to seventh, a massive difference that ensures full effort on Sunday.

headed to houston. pic.twitter.com/KPfeyrybi6

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) December 31, 2025

The Texans enter Week 18 with the league’s third-ranked overall defense, and they have zero incentive to coast. That context matters when building a betting card, but it also creates value if you know where to look.

With that in mind, let’s get into the player props that stand out most this week.

We’ll start with Colts QB Riley Leonard over 0.5 passing touchdowns (-137). This is Leonard’s first extended audition, and the coaching staff is evaluating whether he can command an offense for four quarters against a top-five secondary.

Colts HC Shane Steichen confirms QB Riley Leonard will start Sunday. pic.twitter.com/dhZmgnra1P

— NFL (@NFL) December 31, 2025

Leonard is playing for more than a stat line. He’s competing for the QB2 role in 2026, and this game is about proving he can manage structure, timing, and situational football against real resistance.

The matchup is difficult, but that’s part of the evaluation. If you know anything about Leonard, you know effort and competitiveness will not be the limiting factor.

Look for Leonard to push through and throw his first NFL touchdown on Sunday.

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Next, we’re sticking with Leonard through the air with over 17.5 completions (-115). Opportunity and volume matter here more than efficiency.

Leonard completed 18 passes in Week 14 at Jacksonville after entering in relief, and this time he gets a full week of preparation as the starter. That matters for timing, trust, and re-establishing offensive weapons who haven’t had much room to operate in recent weeks.

Riley Leonard finds the endzone for his first nfl career TD.

📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/0gejudImht

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) December 7, 2025

This is also a Week 18 reality. Players down the depth chart are playing for future roles, future contracts, and future tape. Those situations often lead to sneaky volume.

Next up is Colts K Blake Grupe over 1.5 field goals (-130). This play fits the expected game script cleanly.

Indianapolis is likely to operate conservatively with a rookie quarterback, which should lead to red-zone stalls rather than aggressive fourth-down decisions.

Grupe has hit 22 field goals over his last 12 games, and the setup points directly toward multiple attempts.

Turning to the Houston side, there’s value in Texans QB C.J. Stroud over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+144). The odds reflect recent trends, not the matchup.

Dec 27, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws downfield against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

Stroud has only thrown two-plus touchdowns in five of his last ten games, and Houston may lean run-heavy if they get a lead. But this game carries seeding implications, and the Texans cannot afford to sleepwalk early.

The Colts defense has allowed 125 points over the last four games, and the secondary has struggled to sustain coverage across full drives. If Houston needs to assert control, Stroud will be the one doing it.

The final play on the card is under 39 total points (-110). Everything about this number points toward a slow, controlled game.

Houston has gone under in 11 of 16 games this season, including four of its last five at home. Indianapolis has scored under 20 points in five straight losses, while the Texans rank top-five in points allowed per game at 18.2.

This is a game defined by contrast. Houston is protecting its postseason positioning, while Indianapolis is gathering information, and that dynamic creates clear, exploitable edges if you lean into context rather than records.

Week 18 betting is rarely about chasing fireworks. It’s about understanding motivation, evaluation, and how conservative game plans quietly shape outcomes.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.