Colts vs. Steelers Best Bets | Jones and Pierce Set to Impress

The Indianapolis Colts’ Week 9 matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers is right around the corner. That means it’s time for another round of Colts Best Bets.

Player props just dropped on most sportsbooks, and it’s time to hunt for value. We’re 23-10 on the 2025 season, coming off another plus-money week.

Just like usual, we’re getting inside Shane Steichen’s head to predict this week’s game plan — using recent performances and historical data.

Over the last few weeks, Colts star running back Jonathan Taylor has been the engine behind this offense. But sportsbooks have quietly overlooked Colts veteran quarterback Daniel Jones and his suddenly elite air attack.

Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (Blue and White, 17) throws a pass during the first quarter. — Oct 26, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Jones has thrown for 272 and 288 yards in his last two outings — along with two and three-touchdown performances — while completing 72% and 67% of his passes. He is quietly wrecking secondaries.

That brings us to our first play: Daniel Jones Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-122).

Jones has hit this number in four of his last five games and has tossed 10 total touchdowns during that span. Coming off a 3-touchdown game and facing a Mike Tomlin defense that will load the box to stop Jonathan Taylor, this prop has real value.

Sticking with the Colts’ passing attack, we’re rolling with Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110).

Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce (White and Blue Uniform) attempting to catch a pass. — Oct 19, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers defensive back Elijah Molden (2) breaks up a pass for Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce (14) in the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Pierce has hit this line in five straight games and currently leads the NFL with 21.4 receiving yards per reception. Jones and Pierce are building something special, and the chemistry is obvious.

Now, for the most automatic play on the board — the one we’ve been cashing all season — Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown (-220).

After a three-touchdown performance last week, sportsbooks somehow dropped his touchdown odds by more than 100 points. We’ll take that gift.

Taylor has posted 3+ touchdown performances in three of his last four games. Over his last 13 outings, he’s found the end zone 21 times. That’s not production — that’s domination.

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Most scrimmage TD in a season in NFL history

2006 LaDainian Tomlinson        31
*2025 Jonathan Taylor pace*    30
2005 Shaun Alexander                28
2003 Priest Holmes                      27
2000 Marshall Faulk                    26 pic.twitter.com/oQFuGjqzv9
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) October 29, 2025

Even Mike Tomlin’s defensive wizardry can’t stop Taylor right now. He’s a touchdown machine in an offense averaging over a point per minute of possession.

On the other side, expect Pittsburgh to lean heavily on veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers to keep pace with Indy’s league-leading offense. This one has classic shootout written all over it.

That’s why we’re taking Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-123).

Rodgers has cleared this mark in three straight games, throwing eight touchdowns over that span — and 21 over his last ten. The Colts’ secondary, meanwhile, has allowed 999 passing yards and six passing touchdowns in their last three games alone.

That’s an average of 333 yards and two scores per opposing quarterback. Rodgers will have opportunities all afternoon.

Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (Black and Yellow Uniform) prepares to pass the ball. — Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) prepares to pass the ball during the first half against the Green Bay Packers at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA on October 26, 2025. | Michael Longo / For USA Today Network-PA / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

For our final play, we’re targeting a subtle but profitable trend: Steelers running back Kenneth Gainwell Under 9.5 Longest Reception (-115).

This has hit in eight of his last ten games — and in each of the last four. With Rodgers airing it out downfield, the checkdowns should be limited — making this a strong under play.

This week’s card leans on efficiency and trends that have paid consistently all season. Jones’ touchdown prop and Pierce’s yardage total give exposure to an emerging Colts passing game that continues to surprise oddsmakers.

Taylor’s Anytime TD remains a weekly staple — one you take until it stops hitting. On the other side, Rodgers’ over and Gainwell’s under balance the slate with plays that align perfectly with each team’s offensive identity.

The Colts have been the NFL’s most complete offense over the last month, and Week 9 should be no different. If the trends hold, this card doesn’t just offer value — it offers fireworks.

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