Three Bold Predictions for Colts vs. Texans Must-Watch Showdown

The Indianapolis Colts face the Houston Texans in a must-win divisional matchup.

Nov 23, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) runs against Kansas City Chiefs safety Bryan Cook (6) in the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

They haven't been playing the prettiest football as of late, but the Indianapolis Colts are still in the driver's seat in the AFC South with an opportunity to make a statement win against the Houston Texans this weekend.

The Colts have let their divisional lead slip to just one game, with the Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars slowly catching up. The Colts will face both teams twice over the next six weeks, which makes for a roller coaster final stretch.

First, the Colts must find a way to do something they haven't done at Lucas Oil since 2021: beat the Texans.

Here are three bold predictions that could fuel a Colts victory this Sunday.

1. Jonathan Taylor Handles 30+ Carries

Nov 9, 2025; Berlin, Germany; Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) scores the winning touchdown in overtime against the Atlanta Falcons during the NFL Berlin Game at Olympic Stadium. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Considering how much Jonathan Taylor is in the MVP talks, you would think the Colts were giving him the rock at least 20-25 times a game. That hasn't been the case.

Taylor has reached 20 carries only three times this season, and he's surpassed 30 just once (32 - Atlanta Falcons). If the Colts want to stop their slide from the top of the conference, they need to give the ball to a player they can depend on, which is where Taylor steps in.

Jonathan Taylor is putting up monster numbers pic.twitter.com/27JHOpWMsA

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 21, 2025

In three of his eight career games against Houston, Taylor has reached 30 carries. When the Colts need a win, Taylor is the man to feed. He's had considerable success against the Texans, but the Colts will need him to step up again in Week 13.

Also, with Daniel Jones' fibula issue, it makes sense for the Colts to lean on the run game, especially in a divisional matchup.

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2. Tyler Warren Scores a Rushing Touchdown

Oct 12, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts tight end Tyler Warren (84) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals during the first quarter of the game at Lucas Oil Stadium. | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

In the first four games of the season, the Colts had been mixing in some Tyler Warren rushes at fullback. Since his first four carries, Steichen has yet to dial up another rushing play for the rookie.

Warren punched in a goal-to-go situation for six against the Los Angeles Rams all the way back in Week 4, so he's due for another look against a formidable defensive line.

Tyler Warren has a rushing touchdown for Indy

INDvsLAR on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/6hLKA0zqgw

— NFL (@NFL) September 28, 2025

Warren hasn't scored a touchdown in general since Week 7, but after last week's red zone fiasco in the second half, I think Steichen will try to keep it simple and feed the biggest target on the team.

If the Texans are caught off guard, the Colts could be en route to an easy score.

3. C.J. Stroud Ends With Two Turnovers

Nov 2, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) warms up before a game against the Denver Broncos at NRG Stadium. | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Stroud suffered a brutal concussion against the Denver Broncos at the beginning of the month, but he'll make his long-awaited return against the Colts this weekend.

When you look at Stroud's performance on the road this year, it's not great, aside from one stellar four-touchdown performance against the Baltimore Ravens.

In his three other road games, Stroud has thrown for four interceptions and two touchdowns. That includes a divisional clash against the Jaguars in Week 3 when he threw two picks.

With a new-look Colts secondary featuring Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward, Stroud hasn't faced this type of defense in a rowdy Lucas Oil Stadium. If there's even the slightest miscommunication, Indy's defense must pounce on the opportunity to give their offense good field position and take Stroud off the field.