ESPN: Colts Free Agents Among Most Overrated

The Indianapolis Colts have several key players who are set to become free agents next week, but ESPN put two of them on their most-overrated list.

It's not totally surprising to see a player's value decrease after posting the NFL's fourth-worst record, but are wide receiver Parris Campbell and edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue really the most overrated free agents at their respective positions?

Seth Walder of ESPN Analytics thinks so.

Campbell, a 2019 second-round pick, was finally able to stay on the field for a full season and recorded 623 receiving yards in a lackluster Colts offense. Teams might be intrigued because he has played in only 32 career games, but the 2022 numbers leave plenty to be desired. He managed just 1.1 yards per route run, and his receiver tracking metrics triple-slash of 36/42/50 (open/catch/YAC) indicates the problem in Indianapolis went beyond quarterback play. -- Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics

The Colts let Campbell hit free agency and are considering making a run at Odell Beckham Jr. again after being linked heavily with him last year. Those are strong indicators of the value the place on Campbell.

Ngakoue has been a bit of a polarizing player among those who follow analytics. There's no question he is productive when rushing the quarterback. He's on a historical rate of accumulating sacks in his first-eight seasons.

But his run defense has been nothing to write home about, and it's seen as a big liability. His sacks aren't enough to make up for his run defense if he's on the decline as Walder suggests.

Don't let the 9.5 sacks last season and 10 the year before fool you -- Ngakoue isn't the player he used to be. His pass rush win rate at edge has declined from 21% to 20% to 18% to 14% over the past four seasons, the last of which rated him as middling. Considering that he's one of the worst run defenders at the position -- his 18% run stop win rate at edge ranked 38th out of 43 qualifiers -- it's a rough combination. -- Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics

After a 4-11-1 season, the Colts may be looking for a fresh start beyond a new coaching staff and quarterback. Campbell and Ngakoue could improve under a new regime, but the Colts should be wary of overpaying to keep them in Indianapolis.