ESPN Predicts Colts will be Drafting High... Again

ESPN has predicted the teams picking in the top 10 of next year's NFL Draft.

The Indianapolis Colts took quarterback Anthony Richardson with the No. 4 overall pick in the NFL Draft last month. ESPN predicted the Colts will have a similar pick in 2024.

ESPN predicted the top-10 picks in next year's NFL Draft, and the Colts once again came in at No. 4. 

The Colts won't call it a rebuild in 2023, but with 12-draft picks likely to make the roster, including their quarterback, it's definitely a refresh.

Seth Walder of ESPN analytics, justifies the prediction by pointing at inexperience under center.

Like with the Texans, playing a rookie quarterback in Anthony Richardson offers a very low floor for the Colts. To make matters worse, it's not exactly an ideal situation for him. He's walking into the team that ranked last in pass block win rate last season. Unless Indianapolis' offensive line can improve, that makes succeeding immediately a really tough ask for Richardson. -- Seth Walder, ESPN

The Colts were considered likely-playoff participants before last season, but then the wheels fell off. Much of the core of young talent still resides with the Colts including Jonathan Taylor, Quenton Nelson, Michael Pittman, and hopefully the return of Shaq Leonard.

ESPN included a counter point from their team-beat writers on why the season could be better than the initial prediction. Stephen Holder pointed to Leonard and his ability to create turnovers as a key factor.

One of the primary factors in the Colts' collapse last season was turnovers. Indianapolis had the NFL's worst turnover differential (minus-13), but what if it can manage to turn that around? Doing so would require a healthy Leonard creating havoc as a turnover artist at linebacker, and it would mean the quarterbacks have to play clean. But there's a recipe here that could work. Running back Taylor and Richardson could comprise one of the better rushing duos in the NFL. If the Colts can combine that with competent defense (Indy was 15th in defensive EPA last season), their schedule has a lot of opportunities for victories. -- Stephen Holder, ESPN

Could general manager Chris Ballard survive a four or five-win season? By taking a developmental quarterback like Richardson, the Colts bet on the future. Early word out of Indianapolis is their first-round pick is more advanced than originally thought by most pundits.

Winning the turnover battle will be key for a bounce-back year from the Colts, but so will the development of Richardson.

An ahead-of-schedule Richardson coupled with a neutral turnover margin, and the Colts should find themselves out of the top 10, let alone top five in next year's NFL Draft.