Colts Land Discouraging Win Total Prediction for 2025

The Indianapolis Colts enter the 2025 NFL season with a middling bar when it comes to their win-total projections.

Currently, the Colts sit at a 7.5 win-total projection from BetMGM, half a game lower than where they ultimately placed in 2024 when Indianapolis finished with an 8-9 campaign. But, after an offseason of improvements and changes to help point the arrow in a positive direction, could Indianapolis be on the verge of rising above those projections?

In the eyes of Vic Tafur of The Athletic, getting above that seven-win mark might be a feat easier said than done.

Tafur recently mapped out an over/under for each NFL team's win-loss prediction ahead of next season, where for the Colts, they wound up with a bit of an underwhelming pick of going under 7.5 games won.

"The Colts have not drafted well, and thus have not made the playoffs in four years — and that they signed Daniel Jones to push Anthony Richardson at quarterback speaks volumes. It seemed like Jones was already winning the job even before Richardson tweaked his bad shoulder. The Colts can run the ball and we like Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. at receiver, and rookie tight end Tyler Warren is another nice target that Jones will totally over- or underthrow at a crucial moment."

"Lou Anarumo was once a hot name at defensive coordinator, but the Bengals fired him and he inherits a strong defensive line and added nice pieces in the secondary in Charvarius Ward and Camryn Bynum. The middle is not a good place to be, and the Colts have reached at least seven wins in four of the last five seasons — and they nail that number this season."

What happens next for the Colts? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second and sign up for our free newsletter and get breaking Colts news delivered to your inbox daily!

Defensively, Tafur doesn't seem to picture too many concerns amid the new additions in the secondary and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. The Colts ensured not to remain complacent on that end of the field this offseason, and in doing so, have an extra layer of hope defensively compared to a season ago.

New Indianapolis Colts Defensive Coordinator Lou Anarumo speaks during a press conference Thursday, Jan. 23, 2025 at the Colts practice facility, the Indiana Farm Bureau Football Center. | Kelly Wilkinson/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

But it's the offense where that concern arises for the Colts, specifically on the quarterback position and the uncertainties to come with it.

Surrounding either Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones, the talent is there in their weaponry and a stable-enough offensive line to support, but as either looks to potentially be the fourth-best starting quarterback in their own division. That puts a lot of pressure on either one of those names to step up in a big way, or for the surrounding pieces to lift this group past their quarterback woes, or else that 7.5 win mark could even prove to be too much.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) throws the ball Tuesday, June 10, 2025, during NFL Colts mandatory mini camp at the Indiana Farm Bureau Football Center in Indianapolis. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

If the defense can work through the kinks of last season, and the quarterback position sees some level of improvement, the Colts have more than enough opportunity to rise above such a number, but it remains to be seen if those new changes in the fold end up clicking as expected.

Recommended Articles