Colts Needs, Keepers, and Cuts According to PFF

Pro Football Focus dishes on the Indianapolis Colts' biggest need, which free agent to keep, and which player to cut.

Pro Football Focus (PFF) recently broke down each team in the NFL by its biggest need, free agent to keep, and who will be cut. Two of those seem relatively easy for the Indianapolis Colts, but the third, which player to keep, is more debatable. 

Let's start with the two easy questions, biggest need and who to cut, since they are tied together.

Quarterback Matt Ryan's days with the Colts are numbered. He has a $35.2-million cap hit in 2023 against a dead-cap number of $18 million. The Colts save $17.2 million in cap space by moving on from Ryan in the next couple of weeks. 

Considering his play last year and his remaining contract, a trade is all but out of the question. 

Ryan is getting cut.

Ryan’s 2023 contract situation was a major reason for his benching in favor of Sam Ehlinger for a few games this season, as the Colts couldn’t pass block well and feared an injury could lock in even more guarantees for 2023. It didn’t help that Ryan’s 63.0 passing grade was a career low, or that he finished with six big-time throws to 23 turnover-worthy plays. -- PFF

Which leads us to the team's biggest need... quarterback.

It was far from all his fault, but Ryan finished the 2022 season with the worst PFF grade (63.8) of his entire career and the lowest big-time throw rate in the NFL (1.2%). The Colts are drafting at No. 4 overall but could be impatient enough to trade all the way to the top of the draft to secure their favorite player. PFF

The Colts have been linked with every quarterback under the sun since Halloween, and owner Jim Irsay alluded to Alabama's Bryce Young during new head coach Shane Steichen's introductory press conference. 

Indianapolis has been considered a prime target to trade up in the NFL Draft with the Chicago Bears to get the No. 1 overall pick and their choice of quarterbacks. Young is certainly a contender.

Deciding which of the Colts pending free agents to keep is a bit tougher. Despite the Colts' poor season, linebacker Bobby Okereke, edge Yannick Ngakoue, wide receiver Parris Campbell, and safety Rodney McLeod all played well at times.

McLeod was just named by PFF as the Colts most improved player, and Ngakoue is historically dependable when it comes to sacking the quarterback. 

But it's the 25-year old Campbell that PFF tabs as the most important player to bring back.

Campbell’s production in 2022 outpaced his three-year cumulative totals from 2019-21 in nearly every statistical category now that he was finally healthy, with nine games of at least 40 receiving yards on the year. A one-year flier where Campbell can take yet another step — a decent bet if the Colts' offense doesn’t once again rank dead last in EPA per dropback — makes sense for all parties. -- PFF

The good news for the Colts is they don't have to choose just-one player to re-sign. Okereke, McLeod, and Ngakoue could all return as Colts. Indianapolis is currently 13th in available-cap space at just over $11 million according to Spotrac, and that's before factoring in an an additional $17.2 million in Matt Ryan savings.

The Colts hit rock bottom in 2022, but they have an exciting new head coach, a solid nucleus of players, a top-5 draft pick, and plenty of cap space. 

After 2022, there's nowhere to go but up.