Why Colts' Frontloaded Schedule Isn't Worst-Case Scenario

Indianapolis may be better off with its tough start to the 2026 season.

Dec 28, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; IIndianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) and cornerback Sauce Gardner (1) warm up before a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

The official NFL schedule for the 2026-27 regular season was unveiled last night, and with it, all 32 teams were provided a better picture of what kind of challenge they're up against. Each team has known which teams they'll be playing for quite some time now; however, the order in which they'll face off has been a mystery until now.

Based on final records from the 2025-26 season, the Indianapolis Colts are set to have the T-4th-easiest schedule leaguewide. Indy's opponents have a collective .465 win rate to show for from last season.

Ironically, the Colts faced a similar challenge last season, as heading into 2025, Indianapolis was up against a .464 collective win percentage, which was good for the 8th-easiest schedule. Despite having near-identical opponent outputs, the Colts' schedule is viewed as even easier this time around, though the order in which they'll play is nearly opposite from last season.

Reversing the Schedule

Jan 4, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen on the sidelines against the Houston Texans during the first half at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

As noted, based on final records from the season prior, the Colts essentially have the same level of competition to look forward to. A big part of this is due to the consistent disappointment of their divisional opponents in the AFC South, but this time around, each of said opponents looks to be hitting their stride amid an upward trajectory, especially the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans.

Regardless, no previous season's results can accurately depict its following season's outcome, but this is the best exercise we have when it comes to determining expectations.

The Colts notably had a walk in the park to kick off last season before hitting a brutal second half of the schedule. Indianapolis famously took advantage of said start to the year, taking the league by storm to start the 2025-26 season, riding the wave of quarterback Daniel Jones' resurgence.

After Jones had his season ended early after tearing his Achilles in Week 14, the Colts quickly fell apart, but even then, they had quite the upgrade in competition awaiting them, regardless of his health. Not to mention his fractured fibula, an injury he continued to play on in Week 12, which ultimately served as a hindrance in their games before his season-ending injury.

The Colts started the 2025 season with an 8-2 record before a seven-game losing streak would ruin whatever promise they had shown early on. Daniel Jones' injuries no doubt played a massive factor in such a fall from grace, but even he had shown kinks in his armor toward the end of their 8-2 start, so there's no guarantee that Indianapolis would've continued stacking wins.

General manager Chris Ballard even tried to remedy Jones' initial injury by righting the ship with a blockbuster trade for star cornerback Sauce Gardner at the trade deadline, but alas, the lack of quarterback stability revealed itself as too big an obstacle to overcome.

Entering the second half of the schedule, the 2025 Colts had a much bigger challenge awaiting them than they had up until that point. Below are the splits in collective win percentage from their first slate of games compared to their final stretch.

Weeks 1-8: .387 (4th-easiest)
Weeks 9-18: .554 (5th-toughest)

Not only did the Colts capitalize on their easy start to last season, but they were also the healthiest during this stretch. Looking ahead to the 2026-27 regular season, the Colts are set to have an inverse of last season's schedule.

This year's early-season slate will not only feature three 2025 playoff teams in the Houston Texans (12-5), Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7), and Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) in the Colts' first nine games, but it also includes four games against underperforming teams from a season ago -- Baltimore Ravens (8-9), Kansas City Chiefs (6-11), Washington Commanders (5-12), and Dallas Cowboys (7-9-1) -- who are almost guaranteed to bounce back.

Week	Day	Opponent	Time	Network
1	Sun., Sept. 13	vs. Ravens	1:00 p.m.	CBS
2	Sun., Sept. 20	at Chiefs	8:20 p.m.	NBC
3	Sun., Sept. 27	vs. Texans	1:00 p.m.	CBS
4	Sun., Oct. 4	at Commanders (London)	9:30 a.m.	NFLN
5	Sun., Oct. 11	at Steelers	1:00 p.m.	CBS
6	Sun., Oct. 18	vs. Titans	1:00 p.m.	FOX
7	Sun., Oct. 25	at Vikings	1:00 p.m.	CBS
8	Sun., Nov. 1	at Jaguars	1:00 p.m.	CBS
9	Sun., Nov. 8	vs. Cowboys	1:00 p.m.	FOX

Not to mention, five of the Colts' first eight games are on the road. This includes a trip across the pond to take on the Washington Commanders, which is essentially an away game for both teams, regardless of the indication, but said stretch is still a tough undertaking to kick off the season.

The Outlook

Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard meets with the media at the 2026 NFL Combine. | Clark Wade/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Starting with the toughest portion of the schedule will be an early litmus test of whether or not this roster can take it the distance. With three of the Colts' key contributors -- quarterback Daniel Jones, wide receiver Alec Pierce, and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner -- set to be sidelined until at least training camp while they rehab their various injuries, this early-season gauntlet will give us an idea of what the roster is made of.

They would've benefited from a similar schedule that has the easy slate come first, given their aforementioned core of players returning from injury, but this test out of the gate will quickly prove if this Colts team is built for a playoff run, which isn't for nothing.

The Colts have struggled to stack true success under general manager Chris Ballard, and when they have put together promising stretches that suggest a trip to the playoffs, they've turned complacent and missed the postseason entirely. Now, the Colts will face their greatest test early on, giving us a clear picture of whether they're contenders or pretenders.

There's certainly a reality where the Colts trip over themselves out of the gate and effectively ruin their chances to right the ship by the time the playoffs are approaching, but at least now there are no more early-season excuses to fall back on. The second half of the season will be where the Colts solidify themselves as contenders, while staying afloat during their brutal start will be key, as they'll learn the most about their roster.

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