Commander Country

Betting Trends & Tips for Washington & Bengals

You're not just stuck watching a football game this Sunday between two teams that well -- are not good. You might be able to rake in some cash.
Betting Trends & Tips for Washington & Bengals
Betting Trends & Tips for Washington & Bengals

ASHBURN, Va. -- It does not get any bigger than a Thanksgiving appetizer this Sunday of the two-win Cincinnati Bengals and the equally two-win Washington Football Team. 

Two win apiece. 13 losses and a tie combined as well, but who's counting? 

The two teams with the top two picks from the past NFL Draft. Joe Burrow vs. Chase Young. That should get you in a lather. 

If it doesn't - maybe you can try and make a little extra cash for your Thanksgiving feast? 

Let's get you set up with some information. The Washington Football Team are one-point favorites (-1), which is lower than the traditional three-point home favorite margin. 

It's for good reason. Not only is Joe Burrow already very dangerous but Washington doesn't deserve any benefit of the doubt. However...

  • Per BetQL, Washington has a 52.3% chance to beat the Bengals in Week 11.
  • Ron Rivera’s teams have gone 25-9 against the spread (ATS) coming off a road loss over his entire career.
  • Ron Rivera’s teams have gone 44-21 ATS after playing a road game over his entire career.
  • Per BetQL, over 90% of total money wagered is backing the over, which is 47 points. 

If you're considering the first half over/under, the Washington Football Team is on average being outscored 16.4 (148/9) - 8.0 (72/9). 

Currently, the Bengals are projected under the same model to outlast the WFT by a robust 12-11 margin in the first half. The first-half line is Washington -0.5 for whatever that's worth. 

At some point, Washington has to show up at 1:02 pm instead of 2:35 pm, right?

As of Friday morning, 64% of the money coming in is on the Bengals, because of the small line and Burrow's ascension, I would imagine this is going to go up over the weekend. 

Nobody has faith in Washington despite Cincinnati being not very good either. 

READ MORE: Alex Smith Two Years Later - Is He Better? 

If you believe in computer simulations, a couple of notable items per BetQL.com:

*The Cincinnati Bengals won 54% of game simulations. 

*Cincinnati commits fewer turnovers in 53% of simulations and they go on to win 76% when they take care of the ball. The Washington wins 71% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. 

Washington only has nine takeaways on the year and a minus-7 turnover differential. Three of those nine came in a week one win over the Eagles, so in their last eight games total, they've only forced six. 

The Bengals have a minus-three turnover differential on the year.

*If the WFT decide to 'run the damn ball' -- a note you should consider. Antonio Gibson is averaging 82 rushing yards per simulations for this game.  If he gets there and at least one rushing touchdown (42% chance), Washington chances for winning goes from 52.3% to 68%. 

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