Setting the Stage for the Dolphins-Bills Playoff Game
The Miami Dolphins will look for their first playoff victory since 2000 when they face the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium in the first round of the NFL playoffs on Sunday.
Here's all the pertinent info, along with a final score prediction, for this Super Wild-Card Weekend Dolphins-Bills matchup:
MIAMI DOLPHINS (9-8) vs. BUFFALO BILLS (13-3)
DATE: Saturday, Jan. 15
TIME: 1 p.m. ET
SITE: Highmark Stadium; Orchard Park, N.Y.
WEATHER FORECAST: The forecast for Orchard Park, N.Y., between the hours of 1 and 4 p.m. ET on Sunday calls for temperatures of 27-28 degrees, according to The Weather Channel, with sunny skies and only a 2 percent chance of precipitation. Winds are expected to be only 4 mph.
TV: CBS
Announcers: Jim Nantz (play-by-play), Tony Romo (color analyst), Tracy Wolfson (sideline)
STREAMING: fuboTV (start your free trial)
SI Sportsbook betting line: Bills by 13.5 (over/under 43.5)
Dolphins — RB Raheem Mostert (thumb) are QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) are out; OL Liam Eichenberg (hand) is doubtful; T Terron Armstead (toe/pec/knee/hip), QB Teddy Bridgewater (knee/right finger), LB Bradley Chubb (ankle/hand), FB Alec Ingold (thumb), T Kendall Lamm (ankle), T Brandon Shell (knee/ankle) and WR Cedrick Wilson Jr. (hip/groin) are questionable.
Bills — WR Isaiah McKenzie (hamstring) and DT Jordan Phillips (shoulder) are questionable.
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FOR EVEN MORE COVERAGE ON THE MIAMI DOLPHINS, CHECK OUT SPORTS ILLUSTRATED'S MIAMI DOLPHINS PAGE ON SI.COM
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Regular season series history: The Dolphins lead 61-50-1
Playoff history: The Bills lead 3-1
Playoff meetings:
Jan. 2, 1999 at Miami (wild-card round) — Dolphins 24, Bills 17
Dec. 30, 1995 at Buffalo (wild-card round) — Bills 37, Dolphins 22
Jan. 17, 1993 at Miami (AFC Championship Game) — Bills 29, Dolphins 10
Jan. 12, 1991 at Buffalo (divisional round) — Bills 44, Dolphins 34
Former Bills players with the Dolphins:
DT Justin Zimmer (IR)
Former Bills coaches with the Dolphins:
Special teams coordinator Danny Crossman, associate head coach/running backs coach Eric Studesville
Former Dolphins players with the Bills:
RB Duke Johnson (on practice squad), DE Shaq Lawson, DT Jordan Phillips
Former Dolphins coaches with the Bills:
None
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BILLS SCOUTING REPORT
The Bills will enter the playoffs as the sentimental favorites for any fan whose team isn't in contention after what happened in that Monday night game at Cincinnati, and it just so happens that the Bills have all the pieces to make a deep playoff run. Buffalo won its final seven regular season games, with that Monday night game of Jan. 2 canceled after the incident involving Bills safety Damar Hamlin. Now that Hamlin is out of the hospital, it probably should surprise no one if he was at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, which would only supercharge what already figures to be a crazy atmosphere. Intangibles aside, Buffalo is loaded, starting with QB Josh Allen and a defense that finished first in the NFL in fewest yards allowed.
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THE BIGGEST REASON THE DOLPHINS WILL WIN ...
Given the large point spread, this obviously is going to be no easy task, but let's not forget that the Dolphins defeated Buffalo this season. The Dolphins were outgained 497-212 that day, but the defense came up big at key moments and set up a 6-yard touchdown drive when Jevon Holland had a sack-strip and Melvin Ingram recovered the fumble. To be sure, the Dolphins would need a takeaway or two on defense to help the cause. Offensively, this is Skylar Thompson's big chance and it would be a huge boost if he could have Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead in the lineup, something that looks more promising after he practiced Friday. While the game plan was very conservative against the New York Jets with Thompson at quarterback last weekend, the Dolphins figure to open it up against the Bills and this is where Thompson has to come through with some connections with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
THE BIGGEST REASON THE DOLPHINS WILL LOSE ...
Again, all we have to do is look at the point spread. Oddsmakers clearly don't think this is going to be a very close game. The biggest problem for the Dolphins will be containing Josh Allen, which has proven an almost impossible challenge since he entered the NFL. While the Dolphins were able to manage a split in the regular season, Allen had six touchdown passes against no interceptions, not to mention his 44-yard run in the Dec. 18 matchup. On the flip side, there's no guarantee that Armstead will play despite practicing Friday, and it's fair to question just how effective the offense can be with a rookie seventh-round pick at quarterback.
FINAL DOLPHINS-BILLS PREDICTION
The Dolphins haven't made the playoffs very often in the 2000s and the results have been very disappointing on those rare occasions. It's not just that the Dolphins have lost their last four playoff games, but what's really bad is the margin in those games was 27, 17, 18 and 18. Yikes! Unfortunately, everything seems to be in place for that kind of game because of all the key injuries the Dolphins have against a Buffalo team that's about as healthy as it's been all season. But the reality is that the 2022 Dolphins never once got blown out this season, even in the games they lost 40-17 and 33-17 because they had a chance to win in the fourth quarter every time. Skylar Thompson didn't look very impressive against the Jets last Sunday, but it seemed pretty clear he was given the mission of simply not turning the ball over. He's going to be asked to do more in this game, and we get the feeling he'll be able to deliver to some degree. And the defense has enough quality players to keep things interesting for a while. Let's not forget that the Dolphins easily could have won that Saturday night game in Buffalo back in December but didn't because Josh Allen was just that good. Maybe it's not quite as good this time, giving the Dolphins more of a chance. It's a lot to ask, to be sure, and it also might be wishful thinking. The Dolphins have been competitive all season and it says here they'll be competitive in this one, too, before Buffalo pulls away in the fourth quarter. Bills 30, Dolphins 16.
