How Burrow Fits Into the Dolphins' Past, Present and Future

The Miami Dolphins will be facing Joe Burrow for the third time when the Cincinnati Bengals come to Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, and there are lessons they can take from the 2020 first overall pick beyond what they'll see on the field.

After missing the teams' 2020 matchup in Miami because of a knee injury, Burrow helped the Bengals defeat the Dolphins in 2022 and in 2025.

Burrow remains an elite quarterback in his seventh NFL season, which obviously brings up a back case of FOMO for the Dolphins and their fans now that fellow 2020 first-round pick Tua Tagovailoa no longer is in Miami.

It's not like the Dolphins didn't try to get Burrow because before the teams' matchup last year, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Miami (unsuccessfully) offered not three but four first-round picks to Cincinnati for the first overall selection in 2020 for the chance to take the LSU quarterback.

THE BURROW LESSON

That 2020 draft, with Burrow, Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert at and near the top, is relevant now because the Dolphins are in the market for a franchise quarterback now that Tagovailoa is gone and it could come to pass that they'll look to the 2027 draft for that player — if they decide that Malik Willis isn't and can't be the answer.

But there are a couple of important difference between then and now.

First off, it was very clear at this time seven years ago that the Dolphins had no future answer at quarterback because Ryan Fitzpatrick was getting close to the end of his career and it took, what, five minutes of preseason action to realize that Josh Rosen didn't have the pocket presence and any other intangible to become that guy after Miami had sent second- and fifth-round picks to the Arizona Cardinals to get him in a trade.

It's still too soon in 2026 to determine whether Malik Willis can or cannot become the franchise-type quarterback for the Dolphins, the kind of quarterback with whom a team can contend or even win a championship.

Yes, the Dolphins offense has struggled. Yes, Willis has been inconsistent. Yes, his stats are poor. But there have been flashes — the non-touchdown to Chris Bell, the dart to Malik Washington while rolling to his left, the touchdown scramble against the Las Vegas Raiders in the opener — and the entire operation figures to improve with more time, some developments from young players, and better chemistry within the offense.

And here's an equally important factor: There is no slam-dunk top overall choice right now as the top QB prospect unlike 2019.

By this time in 2019, Burrow was averaging 372.8 passing yards per game and had 22 touchdowns against only three interceptions. Yes, he had a superstar supporting cast around him, led by Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but it also was clear that Burrow was special.

Right now, there's not even unanimity in terms of who the top QB prospect is for the 2027 draft and while Arch Manning probably would get the most votes, there's not even a guarantee he won't be going back to Texas for another college season.

The bottom line there is that barring a dramatic turn of events there won't be a quarterback worth trading multiple picks to get, so if the Dolphins land, say, the third overall pick they would be smart to just stay put and see which prospect is available to them.

The other point was that the Dolphins would have had to take Burrow in the 2020 draft had they had the chance and they also pretty much had to take a quarterback at number 5.

It says here they won't need to force taking a quarterback near the top of the 2027 draft unless Willis flops the rest of the way, and there's too much natural ability to think that's going to happen.

THE TANKING TALK

The Bengals "earned" the right to land Burrow by finishing with an NFL-worst 2-14 record in 2019, clinching the No. 1 overall pick with a 38-35 overtime loss against the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in the next-to-last week.

Contrary to how things have been portrayed at times, the Dolphins would NOT have landed that top pick had they simply lost against the Bengals because they still would have had a one-game "lead" in the standings heading into the season finale and therefore would have needed a loss against New England combined with a Cincinnati win against Cleveland.

The Dolphins were trying to win games in 2019 and they did that down the stretch, going 5-4 over their final nine games after starting 0-7.

Despite what some fans might think, because they have a larger number of players on the 2026 roster who factor into the team's future than they did in 2019, it's actually more important now than back then to win games this season to help build some kind of foundation moving forward.

The "idea" of tanking can be tricky because there are few guarantees in the NFL draft and there's something about the idea of creating a losing culture. Now, if there's a prize that awaits in the draft like, say, John Elway in 1983 or Andrew Luck in 2012 or Burrow in 2020, that's one thing, but there isn't that generational QB prospect available.

Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has been described as about as great a prospect as we've seen in a long time, but he's a wide receiver and no team should tank for a wide receiver — no team should take a wide receiver first overall, to be frank, but that's a conversation for another day.

The Dolphins do want to win games in 2026, even though the reality is that's not going to happen very often.

And they'll try to do just that Sunday against Joe Burrow, even if it might hurt their chances of eventually landing their own Joe Burrow.

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