Saturday Dolphins Mailbag: Tua, Paul, Welker, and More

How to view the Miami Dolphins rebuilding project at this stage, why does the playoff victory drought continue, and other team topics

Miami Dolphins wide receivers coach and former New England Patriots player Wes Welker on the field for warm up before the start of the game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Part 1 of a divisional playoff round Miami Dolphins On SI mailbag:

From Prince-Bishop Militantly Aardvark:

Hi Alain! Do you feel that, after the last half decade of rebuilding, the Dolphins have ended up arguably slightly better than they were, but nowhere near their goal of glory? After all this activity, have we got anything better than some nice new paint over longstanding cracks? Why was this?

Hey PBMA, well, the rebuilding project did produce two playoff appearances, though clearly the goal was much higher than that. As to why the Dolphins have fallen short, there are several reasons, one being missing that one home-run draft pick, injuries and playing a style of football that creates a smaller margin for error.

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From floridaev:

How much longer until Ross sells the team?

Dolphins fans longing for the day when Ross gives up ownership of the franchise to an outside entity are going to be disappointed because the franchise is going to his daughters once he’s out of the picture.

From liam33:

What position or player do you think they target in the first round of the draft?

Hey Liam, it’s too soon to really hone in on a player, though I’ve seen tackle Kelvin Banks from Texas and safety Malaki Starks already projected going to them in early mocks. Understanding that the positional priority will or can change with free agency, at this point I’d think an offensive lineman, defensive lineman or safety would be the target position (though the safety would have to be somebody special to go that high).

From Dave, Fin Fan in VA:

Alain, if you were forced to break down by percentage who is most responsible for the fact that our beloved Fins have not won a playoff game in 24 years now, how would your breakdown go from this list?  1. Ownership. 2. GM. 3. Head Coach. 4. QB play. 5. Bad luck?? My rankings are. 1. 10%. Ross has made mistakes, but he has also paid big money & has first-class facilities. 2. 30%. The GM picks the players. 3. 20%. The head coach guides product on field, but he needs the horses too especially at QB.  4. 30%. No position in sports is more important than the QB & it has been tough going since Marino left. 5. 10%. Specifically with injuries & hitting on franchise QB in draft, which I feel does involve some luck and most importantly, being stuck in Tom Brady's division for two decades, which meant we were essentially playing for wild card spot on Week 1 every season. 

Hey Dave, it’s a long period of time we have to cover here, and it involves multiple owners, multiple head coaches, multiple GMs and multiple quarterbacks. Because QB is the most important position and the Dolphins haven’t had a dominant player at that spot since Marino’s prime, that has to be at the top for me. Having to face Brady and now Josh Allen hasn’t helped, either. The GM personnel decisions have been hit and miss, but that’s the same for every franchise. So definitely put 4 and 5 near the top for me.

From Ed Helinski:

What’s your thoughts about the Houston- Kansas City game and maybe the Texans knocking off the Chiefs on the road?

Hey Ed, yes please. My CFS (Chiefs Fatigue Syndrome) is well known to those who regularly watch the All Dolphins Podcast, but I’m afraid they’re headed for a seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game (yawn). I do think the Houston defense can shut down Patrick Mahomes and company to a certain degree, but what about the side of the ball? I don’t see the Texans having success on offense the way they did in the last three quarters against the Chargers. I do think it will be a close game, but as usual the Chiefs will find a way to pull it out at the end. Hope I’m wrong.

From Earl Gottfried:

Hello Alain, it seems like a lot of the reasons behind the Welker change may be similar to the Fangio change from last year - disciplinary philosophy. Without knowing Welker, could it be that HE wanted tougher discipline on the guys in his room (and maybe the same with Fangio last year) against the philosophy of McDaniel, and that leading to the parting of ways?  Welker, and Fangio, seem like no-nonsense guys and McDaniel far from that. What do you think, off base or close to the mark?

Hey Earl, your theory certainly makes sense on the surface and Dolphins radio analyst Joe Rose had that theory on his morning talk show, except Welker was on the staff the previous two seasons. So if coaching style was an issue, why would it suddenly become a problem? I think a more likely hypothesis would be that Welker took the fall for his wide receivers not being professional enough.

From LaMarc:

Hi Alain, big fan, 2 questions:  first, ever thought of losing that “i” in your first name?  It seems superfluous no?  :) Second, is not the Tua debate the Tannehill debate that took 7 years to figure out?  We have a QB who half the fans think can get it done and half the fans don’t.  As with Tannehill, I don’t want to hear any stats; I have eyes.

First answer is easy: That’s the name I was born with. It’s a common French name and I happen to be French-Canadian. I’ve made it a point to pronounce it Alan for simplicity’s sake, but no intention of changing the spelling. As for the second question, there’s about a similarity there, though I’d say it’s not quite as clear cut that the Dolphins should move on from Tua as it was with Tannehill because he’s accomplished more as a quarterback.

From Thomas Hudson:

Hi Alain, thanks for all the work you do. A couple of hypotheticals on the fired coaches, understanding that there probably is no certain answer to them. With Crossman, is it possible that the fake punt against Houston played a big role? McDaniel said they were looking for it and Houston got the look they wanted. Is it possible that Crossman called the wrong punt return play and that is a big part of his departure? And with Welker, a couple thoughts come to mind. The most obvious one is the Hill situation. Is it possible that Welker did something to make that situation worse and that is part of why he is gone? Maybe a miscommunication between him and Hill? And could Ezukanma be part of the reason? They had high hopes for him at some point, but three years with Welker did nothing for him. I saw you hold up Malik Washington as a positive for Welker, but I have to tell you, after closely following his season at UVA in 2023, I was disappointed by what we got from his rookie season. I know he was hurt early, but still. And speaking of hurt early, just about the entire Dolphins receiving group was hurt early. Does that reflect poorly on the receivers coach, or is it just bad luck?

Hey Thomas, you ask very good questions and make very good points. Maybe the Ezukanma lack of development was a negative mark on Welker, and same for Washington’s rookie season. And it’s reasonable to suggest the whole Tyreek situation could have gotten Welker in trouble. The one I don’t buy is blaming wide receiver injuries on Welker; if anyone would take the blame for those, I would think it would be the training staff. As for Crossman, I made the point that he probably deserved to be fired a lot more after last season than he did after this season.

From Thee Dolphins Dum Dum:

The Miami Dolphins ranked 10th in points allowed this season. However, on average their opponents ranked 20th in ppg. They played eight times against teams ranked in the bottom 8 in ppg. Against teams ranked in the top 12 in points scored, the Dolphins gave up an average of 29.75 points per game. Should the Dolphins be excited about the core of players they currently have on defense or should they be weary of fool’s gold and put emphasis on new player acquisitions?

Hey Dana, can it be both? The Dolphins do have a solid core on defense with Zach Sieler, Jordyn Brooks, the edge defenders and Jalen Ramsey, but they certainly can stand to add some pieces and they likely will have to replace Jevon Holland. As for falling short against good offenses, that’s kind of the story of the whole team, no. I’d also make the argument that in the first Buffalo game, the defense was hurt by the offense, which gave up a pick-six and turned the ball over on downs at midfield. And when we’re talking teams ranked in the top 12 in scoring that the Dolphins faced, that’s only Buffalo, Arizona and Green Bay. So it’s not exactly a large sample size.  

From Jason Kirkland:

Hi Alain, great articles & pods, as usual. How many adjectives would you use before using "tough" to describe McDaniel? I believe teams are a reflection of their coach, so they aren't because he isn't. I don't think they win anything of importance with him. Your thoughts?

Hey Jason, yeah, I don’t think “tough” is a word many would associate with McDaniel, who’s characteristics are more about intelligence, quirkiness and innovation. And, yes, I think it’s fair to question exactly how big the Dolphins can win with those kinds of qualities.

From The Man The Myth:

What is the path for solidifying the offensive line and improving the run game? Free agent G, Draft a G? Patrick Paul takes over? And should we be looking for a heavier RB as well? The plan for Tua in 2023 (fat, jiu jitsu) proved better than the plan for 2024. Do the Dolphins make Tua fat again?

Second question first, the biggest Tua avoided a nasty injury in 2023 is that he didn’t put himself in harm’s way, doing that by sliding earlier or just throwing the ball away. That changed in 2024. It wasn’t about extra weight or jiu-jitsu. As for the running game, I think it’s imperative the Dolphins land a bigger back and make him the short-yardage back.