What to Make of Miami's Eye-Opening Projected Win Total

The Miami Dolphins are entering a new era with GM Jon-Eric Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley

Miami Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley, right, joined by general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan, left, speak to reporters during their introductory press conference at Baptist Health Training Complex. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins are starting over in 2026 with a new general manager and head coach looking like an organization ready to undergo a full rebuilding project.

After GM Jon-Eric Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley inherited a mediocre-at-best roster with a major question at quarterback and salary-cap issues, it always seemed logical to expect the franchise to take a step back next season in order to put in place a foundation that will lead to better long-term results.

But exactly how painful will that first step be for the Dolphins?

Well, it's going to be very painful based on the opening over/under totals from DraftKings.

The Dolphins were projected at 4.5 wins, which is bad enough but also tied for the lowest over/under total in the entire NFL. The Dolphins are tied with the Arizona Cardinals, who went 3-14 last season with former Miami backup Jacoby Brissett starting the second half at quarterback.

Perhaps not coincidentally, the Dolphins and Cardinals both have former high-first-round picks at quarterbacks who could be on the move this offseason, Tua Tagovailoa and Kyle Murray.

Slightly ahead of the Dolphins and Cardinals are the New York Jets with an over/under of 5.5 and the Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets.

At the other end of the spectrum, 11 teams are tied for highest projected wins total at 10.5 — the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers and the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks.

For the record, the Dolphins have finished below 4.5 wins twice since joining the NFL in 1970, in 2004 when they went 4-12 and in 2007 in that miserable 1-15 season.

The Dolphins went 7-10 last season in Mike McDaniel's fourth season as head coach and missed the playoffs for the second consecutive year, prompting the dismissal of GM Chris Grier on Halloween and McDaniel four days after the season ended with a 38-10 loss at New England.

Already this offseason, the Dolphins have released veterans Tyreek Hill, James Daniels and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, with Bradley Chubb also reportedly on the way out. A few other front-line players could follow via release or trade, among them Tagovailoa, wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, tackle Austin Jackson and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Sullivan and Hafley have taken over with a plan to build a sustained winner, and that likely means addressing the cap situation and trying to build a foundation with young players.

It's a recipe that could prove successful in the long run, but the immediate outlook clearly isn't being perceived as very promising.

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