Projecting When the Dolphins Offense Will Break Out

The Miami Dolphins' 0-4 record isn't necessarily shocking given all the roster sacrifices the team made to get its salary cap in order, but maybe the lack of offense wasn't totally expected.

A depressing stat surfaced after the Week 4 loss against the Minnesota Vikings, courtesy of Tim Reynolds from The Associated Press, indicating the Dolphins became the third team since 2004 to fail to score at least 14 points in any of their first four games.

The other two? The 2004 Dolphins and the 2019 Dolphins.

Sigh.

Like the 2026 edition, the 2019 Dolphins were in full rebuilding mode in Brian Flores' first year as head coach, though things were much different with the 2004 team.

The Dolphins were coming off a string of seven consecutive winning seasons, including a 10-6 finish in 2003, but things started going off the rails even before Ricky Williams blindsided the team by deciding to retire on the eve of training camp, with Joel Collier resigning as offensive coordinator in the spring citing exhaustion.

One big difference between the 2026 team and the previous two is that Malik Willis has been the only quarterback to play so far this season, while Jay Fiedler and A.J. Feeley split the first four starts in 2004 and Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen did the same in 2019.

While the 2026 Dolphins at least have reached 10 points in each of their four games, the 2019 team reached 10 points twice in the first month that season and had a total of 26 during its 0-4 start, while the 2004 team was held under 10 points in three of its first four games.

WHY THE OUTLOOK IS BETTER NOW THAN 2004 OR 2019

Where the 2026 team is way ahead of those other two editions is in taking care of the ball because turnovers were a major problem in 2004 and 2019.

Through four games, the Dolphins have committed five turnovers this season, compared to nine in 2019 and a whopping 14 in 2004. The Dolphins also have been much better on third down, converting at a 38 percent clip this year, compard to 26.8 and 26 percent in those two other seasons.

And while Malik Willis' performance hasn't been good enough so far, the Dolphins still have gotten much better quarterbacking than they did in 2004 or 2019. Willis' passer rating currently stands at 73.0, while the two 2004 QBs were at 48.4 and Fitpatrick and Rosen combined for a 52.5 rating through four games in 2019.

HOW LONG WITH THIS DEPRESSING STREAK CONTINUE?

The obvious question, of course, is when will the Dolphins offense reach at least 14 points and/or score more than one touchdown in a game.

The 2019 Dolphins' winless streak to start the season reached seven games before the 5-4 finish, but they did get to 16 points in their fifth game, a 17-16 loss against Washington.

The 2004 Dolphins failed to score at least 14 points through their first six games and were 0-6 before they finally broke out in a 31-14 victory against the St. Louis Rams.

The Dolphins' next game is against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that gave up 22 points against Jacksonville in Week 4 after allowing 30 against the Pittsburgh Steelers the previous Sunday.

So maybe this is the week for Miami. If not, the Dolphins will have to wait at least another two weeks because they have their bye in Week 6 before facing the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on October 25.

When the streak will end is anybody's guess and it should happen sooner rather than later, and it would have happened against the Minnesota Vikings last Sunday if not for Chris Bell barely stepping out of bounds before catching that long pass from Willis.

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