Three Bold Predictions for the Miami Dolphins Against Detroit

The Miami Dolphins face an old friend in Dan Campbell, whose Detroit Lions come down to Hard Rock Stadium for the first time since 2018. Comparisons have been made between these two teams, who are at vastly different points in a potentially similar rebuild, so let's predict how this Week 9 matchup is going to go.

BOLD PREDICTIONS FOR WEEK 9 AT HARD ROCK STADIUM

Jared Goff Throws a Perfect Game

The NFL’s best passing game against its worst pass defense is a recipe for disaster for Miami. The Lions lead the league in EPA per pass attempt, while the Dolphins are dead last in EPA per pass allowed.

Lions QB Jared Goff has been nearly perfect this season. His passer rating of 110 ranks fourth on the season, and he’s the only quarterback who has played in six or more games and recorded only one interception. He’s done this while remaining aggressive, ranking top 12 in air yards per attempt among qualified passers.

On the other side, the Dolphins haven’t proven capable of providing any form of consistent disruption. They’re dead last in yards per pass allowed, one of three teams with less than ten sacks, and rank 31st in total pressures.

Unless Miami's game plan and execution both change drastically, Detroit's passing game is going to have a field day, and that might just mean Jared Goff reaches a perfect passer rating of 158.3.

Malik Willis Reaches Season Highs in Pass Attempts and Completions

No team sees a higher percentage of pass plays run against them than the Detroit Lions. Of the 474 total plays that their defense has seen, 311 (or 65.6%) have been passes. If Jared Goff and the Lions offense are going to be able to get whatever they want on the other side, then Miami will be playing in a negative game script, where Malik Willis will have to throw his way out of a hole.

I think there’s a real opportunity to be somewhat successful with this. Detroit’s defense is 29th in EPA per pass allowed, a number that remains in the bottom seven when looking specifically at third downs. The Dolphins’ offense hasn’t been able to create consistent explosives, so they’ll have to grind out long drives to remain in this game.

This, of course, means more individual reps from Malik Willis, who reached a new season high in completions last week with 21. His highest number of pass attempts in a game this season is 36, which he tallied in Miami’s Week 3 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. I predict he’ll break both of those highs in Week 9.

Dolphins Run Game Gets Back on Track … sort of

A pass-heavy final result isn’t without its share of run plays early on, and with the return of Kadyn Proctor from concussion protocol, Miami’s ground game may get some of its swagger back.

The Dolphins' game plan against the New England Patriots looked very different from what worked in previous weeks. Without Proctor, they tried to move back into the outside zone, where they struggled mightily with individual losses and communication lapses. Bringing back potentially their most physically dominant piece should restore continuity and effectiveness to some degree.

Detroit’s run defense is around league average, and they’re 22nd in EPA per rush allowed. While I don't believe Miami's defense is particularly equipped to keep them in a game where they can run the ball at high volume, I think that their yards per carry and rate stats will look pretty solid by the end of this one.

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