Why the Dolphins Won't Have the No. 1 Pick in the 2027 Draft

If you’ve looked at any of the way-too-early 2027 NFL mock drafts, you’ve probably seen the Miami Dolphins sitting near the top of the board, and that’s usually because the order in those mock drafts is based on odds for next season.

Nationally, there’s a growing belief that Miami is headed for a rough season because of a cocktail of a new regime, roster questions, and a schedule that looks brutal on paper.

Some people seem more convinced that the Dolphins will win four games than that they will compete for a wild-card spot. But once you actually look at the people now running this team, the idea of intentionally bottoming out starts to feel pretty ridiculous.

If you're an Archie Manning or Dante Moore fan, we've got some bad news: the Dolphins won't have the first-overall pick in the 2027 draft.

Here are six reasons:

Hafley and Sullivan Aren’t Built to Tank

Let’s get this out of the way right now. Has anything you’ve seen from new general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan or head coach Jeff Hafley suggested they would willingly walk into their first season in charge trying to lose football games?

Not even a little bit. These guys strike me as the sort of people who get annoyed by some wins, much less losses.

The Fins' new leadership duo fought for years to reach this level. Neither spent decades grinding through football just to intentionally put bad tape on the field the second they finally get control of a franchise. There may have been some agreement that the roster was a total teardown, but you can bet that didn't include tanking the season away in the process.

Dolphins fans know better than most that tanking is not as simple as people make it out to be – it's an art form. If you are going to do it, you have to fully commit. Otherwise, you are just a bad football team that accidentally wins games.

Malik Willis Wasn’t Signed to Lose

When the Dolphins signed Malik Willis to a three-year, $67.5 million deal with $45 million guaranteed, it was not to babysit a rebuild while the team quietly had this master plan to stink so bad they could draft his replacement. If Miami wanted a quarterback simply to survive a bad season, Quinn Ewers already was in-house on a seventh-rounder deal.

Willis is here because the Dolphins believe there is something there. He also has every reason to believe this is his chance to reset the narrative around his career. His flashes in Green Bay gave teams a reason to think Tennessee may have given up on him too early. Now he gets a real opportunity to prove he belongs as a starter.

And unlike Tua Tagovailoa, Willis adds mobility that, by default, raises your chances of winning in today's NFL. Dolphins fans have spent years watching average teams steal wins because a scrambling quarterback turned broken plays into nightmare-fuel upset chaos.

Once Miami signed Willis, the idea of intentionally bottoming out stopped making much sense.

Schedule Strength Isn’t a Science

The Dolphins may have one of the toughest schedules on paper, but preseason strength-of-schedule conversations are built almost entirely on last year’s results.

That context changes quickly. Bad teams get good and good teams get bad in a hurry. Sometimes due to injuries. Sometimes due to roster turnover. Sometimes simply due to the nature of the NFL being awesome like that.

The Chiefs might be on the schedule early, but Patrick Mahomes will not be at 100 percent. The Minnesota Vikings may look dangerous today, but nobody knows whether Kyler Murray will thrive in Minnesota or even be healthy by October. Hell – Joe Burrow may have played his final game for the Cincinnati Bengals before the Dolphins face them this season.

Even scheduling spots matters. Getting the Jets after a bye week seems like a winning odds advantage that should be illegal on Polymarket.

The NFL changes too fast to treat May schedule projections like reality.

A Run-Heavy Team Can Steal Wins

Bad teams increase their odds of winning by shortening games and avoiding mistakes. That is exactly what Miami appears built to do.

The Dolphins are likely headed toward a run-first approach centered on De’Von Achane, backed by a much bigger offensive line. If Miami can consistently run the football, the clock moves, possessions shrink, and games stay close longer.

Factor in Willis turning broken plays into yards – that matters. Fewer possessions mean fewer opportunities for superior teams to pull away. It also increases the likelihood of ugly, low-scoring games where a single turnover changes everything.

Unlike under Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins won't be relying on explosive offensive plays with little backup plans. It may not be as fun to watch, but it should eventually lead to more chances to win.

Arizona Looks Like the Team Truly Chasing the Bottom

Want to feel old? If they tank hard enough, the Arizona Cardinals could have Arch Manning passing to Marvin Harrison Jr. next season.

Who could blame them for losing on purpose when such a mind-bending scenario is up for grabs?

If you want to identify a franchise positioning itself for the future, look at Arizona. Yikes.

The Cardinals entering a season with Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew at quarterback tells you everything you need to know about where their focus is. Not to mention Brissett is currently holding out for a pay raise. It's entirely possible that former Miami Hurricanes QB Carson Beck is leading the way late in the year.

The Trade-Back Option Might Make More Sense Anyway

Call me crazy, but even if the Dolphins win only three or four games and get the No. 1 pick, that does not automatically mean they will draft a quarterback. Follow me on this.

If Willis shows enough to convince Miami he can function as a starter, Sullivan could be in a perfect position to trade down with a quarterback-needy team desperate to move up. Imagine what the Cardinals would pay to move up from 4 to 1 to get Manning? It could be their entire draft or multiple first-round picks.

The strategy of having either an All-Pro or an All-Average QB leading a stacked roster is becoming the move across the league. Teams are realizing that building a loaded roster around a solid quarterback can work just as well as forcing a franchise quarterback pick into a weak roster situation.

The Raiders are about to test that theory themselves with Fernando Mendoza. And with Kirk Cousins ahead of him, even he may not see the field until late in the season.

If Miami does end up with the No. 1 pick and feels forced to take a quarterback, it probably means Willis stunk, got injured, or both.

The Dolphins could be just bad enough to get the first overall pick, but Willis could be just good enough to make them feel like trading the selection for a franchise-altering rebuild. Red Bull would be the smarter move.

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