3 Reasons for Optimism, 3 Reasons for Concern for Falcons in 2026

Anticipation is slowly building for the Atlanta Falcons in 2026. It projects to be a season of several firsts, with the franchise ushering in the Kevin Stefanski and Ian Cunningham era, but fans will hope it becomes the first in eight years.

Atlanta has not played beyond the final week of the season since 2017. Eight long years have lapsed since the Falcons last won more than they lost or made a trip to the postseason, and it has been nine since they won an NFC South title. Fair or not, that will be the barometer by which this new regime will be judged.

The schedule will be difficult, and quarterback uncertainty will swirl around the franchise, but there is enough talent in place to give fans reason for hope. We looked at three reasons why the Falcons will contend for a playoff spot, and three reasons why they will not.

WILL – DC Jeff Ublrich and the defensive staff return for year two

Atlanta Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich led a defensive resurgence | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

One of Kevin Stefanski’s first major decisions as the new head coach was to retain Jeff Ulbrich as the Falcons’ defensive coordinator. Despite several injuries and youth scattered across his unit, Ulbrich led a revitalization.

His pass rush set a franchise record for sacks (57, second in the NFL), just one season after finishing second-to-last in that metric. That unit was fueled by newcomers James Pearce Jr. (more on him later) and Jalon Walker, but Nate Ollie was able to jumpstart a listless defensive line. The Falcons got production from Brandon Dorlus, Zach Harrison, and LaCale London that far exceeded expectations.

The secondary, which received a big boost with the addition of Avieon Terrell this offseason, was one of the league’s best. Terrell will join Mike Hughes and his older brother, A.J., along with one of the NFL’s best safety duos in Xavier Watts and Jessie Bates III.

WON’T – Did that defense do enough to bolster its lackluster run defense?

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor killed the Falcons in Germany | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Falcons’ defense improved dramatically, but still struggled in run defense last season. As a whole, they finished No. 27 in expected points added (EPA) per rush allowed. On top of those issues is the fact that Atlanta lost veteran defenders David Onyemata and Kaden Elliss in free agency.

On a week-to-week basis, they were not nearly as bad as that EPA/rush allowed might suggest. A large chunk of that production came in one dreadful performance against Jonathan Taylor and the Colts. It doesn’t work like this, but omitting that week would drop their average rushing yards allowed per game to 113, which would have lifted them into the top half of the league.

Still, the Falcons will count on their additions of Maason Smith (acquired in a one-for-one with the Jaguars for Ruke Orhorhoro) and Da’Shawn Hand in free agency.

WILL – Special teams got a big shot in the arm

Atlanta Falcons place kicker Younghoe Koo only last one week in 2025 | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

We watched the Falcons implode on special teams week after week. Missed kicks, bad punts, poor coverage, and an even worse return game were enough to cost this team games. If they even had a competent unit in 2025, Raheem Morris and his staff could still be here.

The new Falcons front office made a conscious effort this offseason to change those fortunes. Ian Cunningham signed Nick Folk, the NFL’s most accurate kicker over the last two seasons, and punter Jake Bailey. He also drafted an explosive playmaker in Zachariah Branch to bolster the punt and kick return, plus plenty of other athletic rookies who could add to coverage units.

Additions like that often fly under the radar, but special teams coordinator Craig Aukerman will have plenty to work with this season.

WON’T – James Pearce Jr. status is still an unknown

Atlanta Falcons edge James Pearce Jr. is still dealing with off-field arrest from February | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

James Pearce delivered an outstanding rookie season for the Falcons, finishing atop the sack leaders among first-year players and as a finalist for the AP Defensive Rookie of the Year. He was a beast on the field, and there was growing optimism that the Falcons had found their pass rusher of the future.

Off the field, Pearce had a run-in with the law that will cost him games. He was arrested in February, stemming from domestic violence allegations, leaving his 2026 in question. Pearce entered into a 12-month pre-trial agreement that could keep him out of jail, but the NFL's punishment is still pending. He will face some form of suspension, but when that comes and how long it will last remains unclear until the league office makes its determination.

WILL – Come on, Bijan Robinson is still here, and this skill group is top-notch

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson and wide receiver Drake London are two of the best weapons in the NFL | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Falcons’ running back is arguably the best offensive player in the sport. Bijan Robinson is fresh off a season where he led the league in scrimmage yards, setting a franchise record in the process. He added the explosive element to his game, making him a well-rounded player, but he is still only 24 and just now entering his prime years.

“I say every year I'm trying to be better than last year in all aspects of my game, my leadership, my faith, everything,” Robinson said back during voluntary workouts. “I'm just trying to be a lot better than I was the year before, even when it comes to my goals on the field and off the field. Last year was cool, but I think this year, I want to be even better in all aspects of that.”

If anything, the Falcons will have the pleasure of watching a generation running back play every week.

He will have a new running mate this season in Brian Robinson Jr., but new offensive line coach Bill Callahan could be the best addition to the offense this season. The new scheme and complementary piece will give him plenty of runway to remain the league’s top back.

Bolstering his efforts are a pair of top players in wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. All three players will help supplement this offense and elevate that ceiling.

WON’T – Quarterback uncertainty will hold them back

Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. working together at Atlanta Falcons OTAs. | Scott Kennedy

The Falcons are uber-talented, but will only go as far as their quarterback takes them. Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. will duke it out this summer, but neither gives this offense much reason to celebrate right now.

That could absolutely change over the next several months, but both players are in this situation because of lingering issues with their game. They are both former top-10 picks and still have the potential to be good players in this league, but they have not yet consistently reached that peak.

Whether it’s health or inconsistency, the Falcons are hoping one of these guys can put past performances behind them and help this team win games in 2026. Betting on that happening is a different ask entirely.

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