Atlanta Falcons Season Predictions from FalconsSI Staff

The Atlanta Falcons enter the 2026 season with plenty of talent, but just as much uncertainty.

Atlanta has a new head coach in Kevin Stefanski, a new front office led by general manager Ian Cunningham, and a quarterback situation that remains unsettled heading into Week 1. Cooper Rush will start the season, while Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. have both dealt with injuries.

The Falcons are also attempting to replace significant production along the defensive front after Jalon Walker suffered a season-ending ACL injury and James Pearce Jr. was suspended for the first eight games.

With all of those questions surrounding the team, the Falcons On SI staff is split on what Atlanta’s 2026 season will look like.

Scott Kennedy: 6-11

We all knew the Falcons had a pair of quarterbacks with sketchy injury histories, but the thought was that maybe they could band-aid the pair together and get 17 games out of them. They didn’t make it to Week 1.

Penix will get a last chance to prove that he’s a bona fide franchise quarterback, if and when he returns from ACL surgery. But coaching aside, he’s looked erratic and, more importantly, incapable of surviving a 17-game season.

The Falcons will still have some exciting young players on both sides of the ball, but this might be the season to finally break away from the middle of the pack after five consecutive seasons of seven or eight wins and embrace the tank.

However, the worst-case scenario seems to follow this team around, and they’ll be good enough to stay out of the top five in next year’s quarterback-rich NFL Draft, but not good enough to matter come December's playoff races.

Garrett Chapman: 7-10

The Falcons are a volatile team this season.

There is enough overall talent on this roster to make a playoff run, but the quarterback position remains a hair-pulling weakness. Cooper Rush will start the season, and they feel no closer to an understanding of who will take this team into the future. There isn’t much confidence with Tua Tagovailoa, but maybe Michael Penix Jr. can take the reins after he is cleared for game action.

It’s unsettling that there is still this much unknown.

Defensively, the additions to the defensive line are going to help elevate that group after struggling to stop the run. With a bounce back season from Mike Hughes, the secondary should also remain a steady unit, but the loss of the edge rush upside (specifically James Pearce Jr. for half the season and Jalon Walker to a knee injury) will be an Achilles heel again after being a record-breaking unit in 2025.

If Jeff Ulbrich can get something out of his heavier pass rush and see immediate impacts from the rookies, this could be a middle of the road defense this season.

The schedule is tough, and this team could win as many as 10 games if things go really well. The national expectation of 6.5-7.5 wins makes more sense to me.

Gerald Thomas II: 9-8

This is clearly a transition season for Atlanta under first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski and new front office leadership. The Falcons are currently in quarterback purgatory with Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. fighting injuries entering the year. And there’s no timetable on how long Cooper Rush will lead the offense under new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees.

On defense, the Falcons are coming off setting a franchise record 57 sacks, but are now without the suspended James Pearce Jr. for eight games and Jalon Walker for the entire season after a torn ACL in training camp.

But defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich has put together solid defenses, and Atlanta has added depth on the edge, like Za’Darius Smith, to assist with those absences.

But give it to Stefanski; he did yeoman’s work for the Cleveland Browns to make the playoffs twice in 2020 and 2023, the Browns' only trips to the postseason since 2022.

So this year could go sideways, but what if it doesn’t? That could place the Falcons in the low-performing NFC South playoff spot, which is my prediction. If not, the Falcons will be a 5-7 win team, missing out on a high draft pick in the quarterback-rich 2027 class.

Darius Hayes: 5-12

I have the Atlanta Falcons finishing the 2026 season with a 5-12 record, largely because of the uncertainty at quarterback and a difficult schedule. I expect Michael Penix Jr., Cooper Rush and Tua Tagovailoa all to see meaningful playing time throughout the season, with Jack Strand potentially getting an opportunity as well if the season goes off the rails.

That type of quarterback instability makes it difficult for Kevin Stefanski to establish consistency in his first season. Offensively, I expect Bijan Robinson to continue showing why he is one of the league’s best running backs, but the overall unit could rank anywhere from 20th to 32nd in the NFL. Atlanta has talent, but I don’t see enough consistency at quarterback or across the offense to make this a playoff-caliber group.

Defensively, I see the Falcons as more of a middle-of-the-pack unit, with the potential to improve as the season progresses. The biggest concern is the pass rush, especially with Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. unavailable, which puts additional pressure on the rest of the defense.

If Atlanta cannot consistently generate pressure, it could negatively impact the secondary and overall defensive performance. The return of key players could give the unit a boost later in the year, but I still expect the defense to struggle at times.

Ultimately, Stefanski faces a challenging first season with a brutal seven-game stretch and a schedule filled with playoff-caliber opponents. I think the combination of quarterback uncertainty, limited pass rush, and the difficult schedule keeps Atlanta out of the playoff picture at 5-12.

Jerry Jones, Falcons Podcast: 7-10

The Falcons come in with a very talented roster that’s solid to great in most areas. The problem is that their two biggest weaknesses are at the two most important positions: quarterback and edge rusher.

A quarterback room with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix is already shaky, but now the Falcons will be starting the year with both of them hurt. On defense, the injury to Jalon Walker and suspension of James Pearce Jr turned one of the most exciting young edge rooms into a crisis.

That said, this roster is too talented to be terrible. The run game alone will produce enough offense to squeak out some wins. Plus, Jeff Ulbrich scheme will manufacture some pressures and elevate this defense, even though there are question marks.

I expect the Falcons to start slow, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this team goes on a run in the back half of the end of the season when James Pearce Jr. returns from suspension. Ultimately, I have the Falcons being a pesky team all year and finishing at an all-too-familiar 7-10.

The Verdict

The five predictions average out to 6.8 wins, illustrating the uncertainty surrounding Atlanta entering the 2026 season and right in line with the 6.5-7.5 over/unders from FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively. The highest projection is a 9-8 record and an NFC South playoff berth, while the lowest is 5-12 and another season near the bottom of the conference.

The biggest questions remain the same: Can Atlanta stabilize the quarterback position, can the defensive front overcome the losses of Walker and Pearce Jr., and can Stefanski immediately turn a talented but inconsistent roster into a playoff contender?

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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