One Bold Prediction for the Atlanta Falcons After Week 5 Bye

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga – The Atlanta Falcons are off to a 2-2 start, and looking to get on the right side of that .500 mark for the first time this season. They will have a difficult test with the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football, but a bold prediction from ESPN’s Seth Walder would help get over that hump.

The NFL insider previewed the season with a series of ‘bold predictions’ for all 32 teams. After five weeks of football, he is revisiting each of his preseason takes. Walder had four classifications for his predictions: “Nailed It,” “On target,” “Still a chance,” and “Throw it out, start over.”

For the Falcons, it was the latter of the categories.

Walder predicted that Falcons’ center Ryan Neuzil would rank in the top five, league-wide, in run block win rate. The interior offensive lineman has been a steady force for the Falcons this season, but through five weeks, Neuzil ranks 24th in the NFL in terms of run block win rate (63.5%). This sits more than 10 percentage points outside the top five, and he is unlikely to reach that goal.

Instead, the ESPN analyst is shifting his focus to the team’s running back.

“RB Bijan Robinson will lead all running backs in rush yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, by the end of the regular season. Is it really bold to call for a great running back to be great? Maybe not. But consider that Robinson is more than 100 rushing yards over expectation behind the current leader (improbably, the Cowboys' Javonte Williams at 133) with only 29 on the season. Robinson finished seventh in the category last season with 199.”

Robinson’s impact on the Falcons is clear. Before the early Week 5 bye, the running back led the NFL in total yards after his fourth straight 100+ yard performance to start the season. The season is still young, but Robinson is on pace to be one of just three other players to pick up 1,000 yards receiving and rushing.

He sits at 314 yards on the ground and 270 yards through the air, but is currently on pace for 1,335 rushing yards and 1,148 receiving yards. Based on what we have seen from him throughout his career, neither total feels all that unrealistic for the Falcons’ running back.

“Just find more ways to get him the football,” Falcons head coach Raheem Morris said about Robinson last week. “He's an unbelievable football player. I keep saying it, but he keeps going out and proving it. I'm glad he's on our team.”

Against the Commanders, Robinson carried the ball 17 times for 75 yards and a touchdown, and added catches on four of his five targets for a career-high 106 yards. He also forced six missed tackles across his 21 combined touches, giving him 24 missed tackles forced on the season.

Performances like that were enough to garner NFC Offensive Player of the Month honors for Robinson, but more of those could get him into an even higher class.