Why Giants Will Beat Cowboys, Why They Won't, and a Prediction

The New York Giants just wanna win.

It doesn’t matter who the Giants are playing–they just want the results of their hard work to show up in the win column, something that hadn’t happened since last season.

But as far as the team is concerned, it doesn’t matter who the opponent is or what their history is. It’s win or bust, and this week’s game against the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football is no different.

“I'm sick of losing to anybody,” defensive lineman and co-captain Dexter Lawrence II said.

When it has come to the Cowboys, the Giants have struggled to win, dropping 13 of their last 14 meetings, including the last six in a row.

The recent losses by the Giants to the Cowboys haven’t just been close shaves either–Dallas has legitimately blown their division rivals out of the water, winning both of last year’s games by a combined 89-17 and delivering the gut punch in Week 1 last season that pretty much set the tone for the Giants’ 6-11 season.

But as head coach Brian Daboll likes to say, it’s a new year and new teams with different personnel and, in the case of the Cowboys, a new defensive coordinator in Mike Zimmer, whose unit has struggled, particularly against the run, in its first three games.

The Cowboys have lost their last two games, both at home, by a combined score of 52-45, a score that is a lot closer than it is considering the Saints blew the Cowboys out of the water with a 44-19 thrashing in Week 2, and the Ravens went into a prevent mode for the fourth quarter of their game against Dallas last week after taking a 28-6 lead, the Cowboys scoring all 19 of their points in garbage time.

The Giants, however, aren’t taking any solace in the fact that the Cowboys are struggling, nor are they planning any “Victory Friday” celebrations. They know how dangerous Dallas can be and have made sure to cover as much detail as possible in the short workweek.

And winning, regardless of the opponent.

“I don't hold more weight on one game than the other,” Lawrence said when asked if there was an element of revenge after what happened last season against the Cowboys.

“They all hit the same. They all count the same. I want to win regardless. It doesn’t matter against who or how we win. I just want to win.”

Quarterback Daniel Jones agreed.

“We don't like losing to anybody, especially a divisional game,” he said. “We understand what this game means, and we'll be ready to go.”

MORE: Giants Keys to Victory Over Dallas

Why the Giants Will Beat the Cowboys

Unlike last week’s game, in which the Giants went up against a very good defense but a shaky offense, the opposite holds true this week.

Dallas’s defense is star-studded, but it’s still trying to find its way as a unit under new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer. Zimmer runs a great deal of nickel, seemingly putting his run defense at a disadvantage. Dallas’s run defense is ranked dead last in the league in both average yards allowed per game and average yards per rush.

It wouldn’t be a stretch to wonder if Zimmer might be willing to concede the run this week against the Giants in exchange for honing in on receiver Malik NAbers, who has been unstoppable these last two weeks.

The Giants can counter that approach by running a lot of heavy personnel (12- and 13-personnel) to help keep edge rushers Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence out of quarterback Daniel Jones’s face.

MORE: "No Chance!" Analyst Says Giants Can't Beat Cowboys

Why the Giants Will Lose

Three concerns here can potentially sink the Giants’ proverbial battleship against the Cowboys.

The first is ball security. Since 2022, the Giants’ running backs have fumbled the ball nine times, tied for the most in the NFL. Not good.

So far this season, Devin Singletary, who vowed to clean that up, has two of those giveaways, which resulted in three points for the opponent (the second one led to a field goal attempt, which was no good).

The second concern is the Giants' defensive secondary. An already questionable unit coming into the season this week, they’ll be without cornerback Adoree Jackson and slot cornerback Dru Phillips, the two Giants corners who just so happen to have the best coverage ratings on the team.

Nick McCloud is returning after a two-week absence due to a knee injury and will likely play outside while Cor’Dale Flott comes down to play in the slot.

In 25 slot cornerback snaps so far this season, Flott has a team-worst 158.3 coverage rating, not something you want to see when he’s potentially set to go against CeeDee Lamb, one of the best slot receivers in the NFL.

The third concern is special teams. Simply put, Dallas has a very good special teams unit led by John Fassel, one of the most creative special teams coaches in the business.

The Giants? Let’s just say injuries and the new dynamic kickoff have made first-time NFL special teams coordinator Michael Ghobrial’s first NFL season as a full-fledged special teams coordinator job a little harder than hoped.

Dallas’s punt return unit averages 19.2 yards per return, second best in the NFL, and its kickoff return unit’s average of 26.6 is 15th best in the NFL (the Giants are tied for 20th and 19th, respectively, in those categories).

The Cowboys' coverage units are ranked 28th in punting and tenth in kickoffs, while the Giants are 17th and 29th, respectively. And Dallas is tied for first in field goals made, which they have yet to miss this season. The Giants are tied for 28th.

Daboll, who initially declined to endorse kicker Greg Joseph the day after the win against the Browns, decided (along with general manager Joe Schoen) to stick with Joseph on the short work week (also probably because the Giants are obligated to carry Joseph on the 53-man roster for a minimum three games since he was signed off another team’s practice squad).

Joseph’s miss of a 48-yard field goal last week made the game against the Browns a little closer than it probably needed to be and probably has the Giants brass hoping that the game against the Cowboys doesn’t come down to a long-distance pressure kick.

MORE: Giants-Cowboys: How to Watch for Free, Listen, Odds and More

Prediction

History doesn’t favor the Giants at all in this matchup–and I’m not just talking about the fact that they’ve lost 13 out of their last 14 meetings against the Cowboys and have a six-game losing streak going, that Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is 1-12 in games under the lights, or that the Giants are 4-9-0 in Thursday night games.

And yes, I realize I wrote earlier this year that I wouldn’t pick the Giants again unless they give me a reason to believe.

Know what? Last week’s win against the Browns, which breathed new life into the locker room, and the Giatns’ “F– it!” mantra have given me reasons to believe that a re-write of recent history begins tonight.

MORE: Giants-Cowboys Final Injury Report

Giants 24, Cowboys 17