Why the Giants Will Beat the Cardinals, Why They Won't, and a Prediction

The New York Giants have a chance to go 3-1 for the first time since 2022 and also to start a regular-season campaign 3-0, which they have never done since moving into MetLife Stadium in 2010, their last such 3-0 start at home coming in 2008 in the old Giants Stadium.

They will attempt to do so this weekend against a bunch of angry birds—no pun intended—in the form of the Arizona Cardinals, who are looking to snap a two-game losing streak that included a heartbreaking 36-30 loss to the 49ers last week on the road.

This game once looked like a “gimme” for the Giants, but things have changed largely because of the season-ending injury to quarterback Jaxson Dart. But it is not all lost for Big Blue, even though the oddsmakers have dropped them from favorite to a 2.5-point underdog at FanDuel.

Why the Giants Will Win

If Jameis Winston is ever going to have a big day passing the ball, this week could be it. Arizona ranks 22nd in average passing yards per game allowed (234.3) and 31st in average yards per pass attempt (8.79).

This could be a golden opportunity for the Giants to lean on receiver Malik Nabers and tight end Isaiah Likely; if they can establish a passing game early, it will discourage the Cardinals from consistently loading up the box against the run.

Defensively, if the Giants can take Cardinals receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. out of the game and force quarterback Jacoby Brissett to take the checkdowns, they stand a chance of bottling the Cardinals offense.

A key will be limiting the damage tight end Trey McBride can inflict, which they can do by disrupting the timing up front and ensuring quick tackles on McBride and on offense short passes he doesn't catch.

The Giants' run defense will also need to force rookie Jeremiyah Love to bounce his runs to the outside, where the linebackers' speed should be able to catch up and string out the rushing attempts.

Why The Giants Will Lose

Thus far, the Giants have established their offense as a ground-and-pound attack, and there is no reason to believe they won’t lean into it again.

Teams have attempted to slow the Giants down by loading up the box with eight or more defenders, and to a degree, that has worked. The Giants have faced 8+ defenders in the box 44 times, the eighth most in the league. And they’re averaging just 3.0 yards per carry against stacked boxes, which is 14th in the league.

To defeat a stacked box, the offense can do several things, including throwing quick passes, particularly on slant patterns, using empty formations by forcing defenses to cover tight ends and running backs as potential receivers, running RPOs, and working with unbalanced sets.

Stacked boxes can be beaten, but the bad news is that when the Cardinals have loaded up the box, they've allowed only 2.6 yards per carry. And for even more bad news, Jameis Winston likely won’t be asked to run the RPO game the way Jaxson Dart would.

Add Winston's struggles with the ball, and it could be a tough afternoon for the Giants offense to move the chains and get into the end zone.

Prediction

The Giants are struggling not only with their pass rush, but their offense has gone bone dry in the red zone.

New York has gone eight quarters without scoring a touchdown, and while the first four are likely a result of the Dart season-ending injury and Winston having to go into the game cold, the most recent four were equally alarming.

While we feel good about the Giants snapping out of their touchdown-scoring funk, we’d feel a lot better if they had the RPO in the playbook this week.

Cardinals 23, Giants 17

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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