How Jaguars' 2025 Draft Compared to Past Consensus Board Hauls

When it comes to the NFL Draft, even the phrase "inexact science" doesn't quite do it justice.

The draft is, by and large, a crapshoot. No scout or general manager has a crystal ball that can tell how a young athlete will develop at the NFL level, despite the number of whom believe they do.

That is why one of the most tried and true ways to evaluate the draft processes teams execute is via the consensus board.

When the consensus board says a team drafted well, people love it. When they say their team didn't draft well, it is hogwash.

But time has proven that as far as draft projections go, the consensus board is typically outperforming the house. People were upset at how low the Jaguars' draft graded by the consensus board last season, for example, but by the end of the year the Jaguars had few impacts being made by their rookies outside of Brian Thomas Jr., Jarrian Jones and Cam Little.

Last year's general, uh, reaction to the consensus board and the Jaguars' draft gave me inspiration for this article, which we will now run in each annual post-draft process.

The idea is simple: how did Jaguars' general manager Trent Baalke do by the consensus board in his four drafts from 2021-2024, and how did James Gladstone do in 2025? While we won't know how good of a draft class Gladstone put together for another few years, it is at least worth looking at the process.

We will start with the 2021 draft class, which had the Jaguars selecting Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 overall.

Overall, this was a tough process for the Jaguars. It is something to note that the only two positive picks from the class in terms of consensus board value were Jay Tufele and Jordan Smith, who combined to appear in only six games as Jaguars. With that said, they were at least drafted where most people expected.

Otherwise, this was a draft of reaches for Baalke and the Jaguars. The Lawrence, Tyson Campbell and Walker Little picks have aged well for the most part, but that is about it.

Overall, the Jaguars' net value vs. the consensus board was at -298. Overall, the Jaguars reached by an average of 33.11 spots per pick.

So, what about in 2022 when the Jaguars held the No. 1 pick again? The results again were less than ideal.

The Jaguars made only two positive picks by consensus board value, though the Lloyd value is diluted by the Jaguars trading a second-, fourth- and sixth-round pick to trade back up for him. The only other positive value is Muma, who has not panned out.

Travon Walker wasn't a big reach and he has produced since being drafted, but the Luke Fortner pick turned out to be costly and the only play worthwhile the Jaguars drafted on Day 3 is the one player who wasn't a major reach.

Overall, the Jaguars' net value vs. the consensus board in 2022 was at -277. Overall, the Jaguars reached by an average of 39.57 spots per pick.

The 2023 draft was, again, filled with reached by the consensus board. Anton Harrison and Tank Bigsby were taken in the right rounds, but it looks like the Jaguars likely overestimated the value of Brenton Strange and their first two Day 3 picks by about two rounds at minimum

Baalke did draft his best value picks in Antonio Johnson and Parker Washington, but he then took five players in a row on Day 3 who were massive reaches even at that point in the draft. None have panned out to date.

Overall, the Jaguars' net value vs. the consensus board in 2023 was at -1,119 -- largely due to the massive reaches on Day 3. Overall, the Jaguars reached by an average of around 86 spots per pick.

Baalke's final draft was in 2024, and it mostly stayed to the same routine. He once again found two players who were positive consensus board values but otherwise had some massive reaches.

Brian Thomas and Myles Cole were positive picks value wise, but that was about it. The span from Jordan Jefferson through Keilan Robinson was an especially reach-filled one, though it seems like kickers just get dinged for value regardless of where they are drafted.

Overall, the Jaguars' net value vs. the consensus board in 2024 was at -509. Overall, the Jaguars reached by an average of 56.55 spots per pick.

In 39 picks over four years, the Baalke-led front office only had eight picks of positive consensus board value. Nine if you count Trevor Lawrence at No. 1, but he went where he was supposed to.

That is an average of 20.5% hit-rate in terms of positive value. In short, the Jaguars reached four times in every five picks from 2021 to 2024.

So, how did things look in 2025 under Gladstone?

The short answer? Much, much better.

The Jaguars still had some reaches (Jalen McLeod, Rayuan Lane III, Caleb Ransaw). But in comparison, Gladstone's biggest reach would not have been in the top-8 of Baalke's biggest reaches. He also would not have been the biggest reach in any of Baalke's four classes.

With positive values on Travis Hunter, Wyatt Milum, Jonah Monheim, and LeQuint Allen, Gladstone turned nine picks into four positive values. That is a 44% hit rate, twice as often as Baalke's 20.5%.

Overall, the Jaguars' net value vs. the consensus board in 2025 was at -158. Overall, the Jaguars reached by an average of 17.55 spots per pick.

All of these figures blow the past four drafts out of the water. Time will tell just how good this draft class, but it sure seems like the Jaguars are getting more efficient with their draft process.

Ensure you follow on X (Twitter) @JaguarsOnSI and @_John_Shipley and tell us how you feel about the consensus board!

Please let us know your thoughts on the consensus board when you like our Facebook page, WHEN YOU CLICK RIGHT HERE.