5 Reasons the Jaguars Will Triumph Over the Houston Texans in AFC South

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- We have finally come to the Houston Texans, who figure to be the most important foe on the Jacksonville Jaguars' schedule when it comes to 2026.

When looking at the Jaguars' path back to the AFC South, it is clear the Texans are the most critical hurdle set in front of them. We have detailed why the Jaguars do not need to fret much over the steps the Tennessee Titans took this offseason, and the AFC South does not get much better beyond that.

With the Colts' brass entering the year as lame ducks, it is the Texans who are the biggest resistance in front of the Jaguars and another AFC South title. But why should the Jaguars be optimistic about their upcoming two-game series with Houston on the path to winning the AFC South once more? We break down a few reasons below.

C.J. Stroud

I do not think C.J. Stroud is a bad quarterback by any means; he has certainly flashed more good than bad in his career, and he has also been dealt a few tough hands in terms of play-callers and offensive lines in his career. With that said, there is no questioning that the arrow is pointing sideways at best for Stroud entering 2026, as compared to an arrow that is pointing straight up for the Jaguars' own young quarterback in Trevor Lawrence.

Stroud finished the year with some woeful playoff performances, and there were too many weeks during the 2025 season where he looked like a shell of himself inside the pocket. He can turn things around but for now, the Jaguars have the clear top dog in the AFC South when it comes to the quarterback spot.

Nick Caley

Is there any proof at all that Nick Caley is good? I know he worked with Sean McVay for a few years, but his path to becoming a play-caller was more so defined by his time working under Josh McDaniels. That is closer to what the Texans' offense looked like with him at the helm last year, even with the benefit of having an elite defense behind them each and every week.

Until proven otherwise, Caley is a below-average play-caller working with a non-elite quarterback and a questionable offensive line. He has an all-world receiver in Nico Collins, but otherwise it is hard to believe that Nick Caley himself is capable of turning the Texans' offense around after back-to-back years of meh. Caley got whooped by Anthony Campanile in Week 3 last year, and I think the Texans' offensive output in their win against the Jaguars was more flukey than anything else.

Their Young OL

keylan ruteledg — Jun 9, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans guard Keylan Rutledge arrives for the team’s minicamp at Houston Methodist Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Texans seem like they are reshaping their offensive line every other year, and this year is no different. They traded long-time starting offensive lineman Tytus Howard to the Cleveland Browns, and then added a few new veteran faces in Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith. But two of the more important pieces are set to be first-rounder Keylan Rutledge and second-year offensive tackle Aireontae Ersery.

The Texans are putting a lot of eggs in the Ersery basket, especially considering the matchup he will have with Josh Hines-Allen twice this season. Hines-Allen was able to push the Jaguars to wins over the Texans when he had to battle Laremy Tunsil, so it stands to reason the Jaguars would have an edge in this battle.

As for Rutledge, he was one of the biggest reaches of the first-round this year going by the consensus board. If people are going to pile onto the Nate Boerkircher pick, this was was not much better by the same values consdiering it was a top-32 selection. He was a big reach, and the Texans could end up paying for it.

Their RB Plan

david montomer — Jun 9, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans running back David Montgomery arrives for the team’s minicamp at Houston Methodist Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Texans already might have a few issues if they have to lean on their passing game this year -- we have already detailed each of them in length. But one big reason the Texans' passing game might be at such a disadvantage is the fact the Houston is moving forward with an odd plan at the position after things went awry last year with Joe Mixon's injury.

Houston traded for David Montgomery this offseason, and while he is a solid running back, their depth behind him is still putrid. Woody Marks would not be a top-three running back on the Jaguars' roster, and Montgomery is far from a game-changer. Montgomery would work best in a tandem with another talented running back like he did in Detroit, but the Texans have no clear option for any player like that to emerge in 2026.

The Jaguars are already elite stopping the run. Houston's running game should serve them a chance to find a real advantage when these two teams meet this season, one reason the Jaguars should feel comfortable with losing a key home game to the London series vs. Houston.

Last Year's Efforts

liam coen — Sep 21, 2025; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen and Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans shake hands after the game at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Zero minutes. That is how long the 2025 Houston Texans held a lead over the 2025 Jacksonville Jaguars. Yes, the Jaguars went 1-1 against the Texans due to their woeful failure on the road in a Week 10 36-29 loss, but the Texans had to make a mad dash to comeback, and they did not take the lead until time expired on the final play of the game.

In 120 minutes against the Texans last year, the Texans did not spend a single second actually beating the Jaguars on the scoreboard. By comparison, the Jaguars spent 45:39 leading over the course of the two games, which is just a bit under 40% of the time. The Jaguars outplayed the Texans twice last season, and there is little reason to think the Jaguars do not have it in them to do it again.

The Texans were a great team last year, largely because of their defense. But even that great team was clearly inferior to the Jaguars when the two met on the field for two Sundays, even if the series was ultimately split.

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