Jaguars Have 1 Key Edge Over Texans Entering 2026 Divisional Title Battle

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans were neck-and-neck last year, but the Jaguars have one critical edge entering 2026.

Sep 21, 2025; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen and Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans shake hands after the game at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images | Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- When it comes to the 2026 AFC South race, it is clear which teams are entering the season as the leaders.

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans were neck-and-neck for most of last season, splitting their season series 1-1 and with the AFC South title not being decided until the Jaguars won it in Week 18.

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (7) rushes for yards after a reception during the fourth quarter of an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Sept. 21, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Texans 17-10. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Jaguars and their hated rivals have spent all offseason gearing up for a renewed race to the top of the division in 2026, with the Texans adding several new names and with the Jaguars anticipating the return of Travis Hunter and the maturation of several other pieces.

That means any edge either team can find ahead of Week 1 is important. In a race that looks like it will be as tight as this one, the Jaguars just may have one of those edges.

Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen greets Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans after the game of an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Sept. 21, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Texans 17-10. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Jaguars' Edge

When it comes to two teams who are as even as the Jaguars and Texans, the smallest of differences in their 2026 path will make a meaningful impact. One such difference could be the two team's strength of schedule entering 2026, with the Texans seemingly having the toughest in the entire AFC South.

According to analysis done by Warren Sharp, the Jaguars' strength of schedule is ranked No. 15 -- third in the AFC South, but relatively in the middle of the pack compared to the rest of the NFL. As for the Texans, they are ranked No. 26 and are closer to the bottom-5 than they are to the Jaguars.

NEW: NFL strength of schedule for 2026!

5 easiest schedules:

1️⃣ Lions
2️⃣ Saints
3️⃣ Bengals
4️⃣ Browns
5️⃣ Jets

5 hardest schedules:

2️⃣8️⃣ Rams
2️⃣9️⃣ Cowboys
3️⃣0️⃣ Panthers
3️⃣1️⃣ Dolphins
3️⃣2️⃣ Cardinals

1-32 with insight & analysis:https://t.co/iS1PFqfcxx

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 4, 2026

This, of course, is analysis that is based mostly on projections and what people imagine the teams will look like once they take the field in Week 1. We will see teams get better throughout the season, while we will see other teams with big expectations end up picking in the top-10 of the draft. By mid-season, these rankings could look quite a bit different.

But the sheer fact the Jaguars have some kind of noticeable edge over the Texans is critical. The Jaguars knew they were nipping at their heels last season, and they know what kind of test they are going to be this season. If the Jaguars can get some kind of help from the rest of the NFL in their pursuit of their first-ever consecutive seasons winning the AFC South, then they will take it.

Nov 9, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) attempts a pass as Houston Texans defensive end Dylan Horton (92) defends during the game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

With that said, the Jaguars also know that at the end of the day, these edges don't matter. What does matter is what the Jaguars do when it is time to snap the ball.

"I've heard the word win a lot, guys are telling me, I just want to win some games. And so, if we have a ‘we above me’ mentality, which I believe that room of guys does, and they do it the right way, you can definitely feel maybe a little bit more confidence in the standard and confidence in the continuity of how we operate," Jaguars head coach Liam Coen said at the start of the Jaguars' offseason program last month.