AFC South Round-Up: Jaguars Stave Off Texans Yet Again

The Jacksonville Jaguars knew it wouldn't be easy to maintain control of the division. They played like it in Week 15.

Nov 9, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) stands at the line of scrimmage against the Houston Texans during the second half at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Jacksonville Jaguars technically took the lead in the AFC South back in Week 13, when they beat the Tennessee Titans 25-3.

On the same day, the Indianapolis Colts suffered a tough loss to the Houston Texans, 20-16, their second straight at that point. However, Jacksonville only had the top seed on a technicality, holding the "common opponents" tiebreaker over Indy while boasting the same 8-4 record.

Since then, the Jaguars have won two more games to take the lead outright, while the Colts have continued their freefall, with starting quarterback Daniel Jones out for the year with a ruptured Achilles.

However, Jacksonville doesn't have the division locked up yet, with the Houston Texans on the chase, riding their own win streak with six victories in a row.

Jaguars have to keep pace

Dec 14, 2025; Jacksonville, Florida, USA;Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) drops back to pass against the New York Jets at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Travis Register-Imagn Images | Travis Register-Imagn Images

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4, 3-1 in div.)

Last game: 48-20 win vs. New York Jets

Next game: @ Denver Broncos

The Jacksonville Jaguars notched their third straight blowout win, destroying the New York Jets at home, 48-20. After struggling to get statement victories all season, Jacksonville has been manhandling its competition as of late. In their last three outings, the Jags have defeated their opposition by a combined margin of 67 points.

In Week 16, they take on their stiffest competition remaining on the schedule, as they go on the road to take on the AFC-leading Denver Broncos. The Jaguars have a lot in common with their upcoming opponent, as both teams have strung together impressive campaigns but are continually doubted, largely due to the lack of faith in their respective unproven quarterbacks. Jacksonville will likely have to pull off the upset over Denver to keep its lead in the division.

Dec 14, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) looks for an open receiver during the game against the Arizona Cardinals at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

2. Houston Texans (9-5, 4-1 in div.)

Last game: 40-20 win vs. Arizona Cardinals

Next game: vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Houston Texans have already played the Broncos, losing to them in Week 9. However, the Jaguars can't afford to do the same. If the two teams finish the season with the same record, Houston will hold the "common opponents" tiebreaker over Jacksonville, giving them the division and sending the Jaguars to the Wild Card.

The good news is that the Jags have a very favorable final two games against the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans, two teams they've already blown out this year. The bad news is that the Texans' remaining schedule is light, too, hosting the Las Vegas Raiders this coming week before taking on the Los Angeles Chargers and the Colts to finish the campaign.

Dec 14, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Philip Rivers (17) stands over center during the first quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Ng-Imagn Images | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

3. Indianapolis Colts (8-6, 2-2 in div.)

Last game: 18-16 loss @ Seattle Seahawks

Next game: vs. San Francisco 49ers

Thanks to their ridiculous start to the season, the Colts are still in the hunt for a playoff spot this year, but their margin for error has completely dissipated. Indianapolis has lost its last five games to drop out of the current postseason picture. Not only that, but they'll have to try to right the ship with Daniel Jones and Sauce Gardner out for the remainder of the campaign.

In Jones' stead, 44-year-old Philip Rivers started at quarterback against the Seattle Seahawks. He played admirably, but this offense was significantly hampered without Jones' arm and mobility. Even winning out now, the Colts will have to catch some lucky breaks to reclaim a Wild Card spot. There's probably a better chance that Indy loses out than runs the table from here, as their final three games are against the San Francisco 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans.

Dec 14, 2025; Santa Clara, California, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward (1) looks to pass during the first quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images | Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

4. Tennessee Titans (2-12, 0-5 in div.)

Last game: 37-24 loss @ San Francisco 49ers

Next game: vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Tennessee Titans continue to show spunk, especially on offense with the ascension of rookie quarterback Cam Ward. If the standings hold up, the Titans will have the third-overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Since they already have Ward, Tennessee doesn't need to land the No. 1 selection, but it would certainly help expedite the rebuild if it's able to use it as a trade asset to collect more young talent or draft capital.

In Week 16, they get to take on a reeling Kansas City Chiefs team that's riding a three-game losing streak, just had star quarterback Patrick Mahomes go down with a torn ACL, and were officially eliminated from playoff contention. It wouldn't be absurd to think of the Titans pulling off an upset in this one.

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