Calculating the Chances of Jaguars Returning to Playoffs Next Season

Ever since the Detroit Lions blew a 17-point lead in the second half of the NFC Championship Game against the San Francisco 49ers back in 2023, Head Coach Dan Campbell's infamous quote has gone viral again in every playoff, directed at various different teams: "This may have been our only shot." For some cores, his words ring true.

The Cincinnati Bengals lost the Super Bowl in the 2022 NFL season, lost in the AFC Championship the next year, and haven't been back to the playoffs since. The Jacksonville Jaguars exceeded all of their preseason expectations in 2025, pulling off one shocker after another en route to a 13-4 finish, a divisional title, and a home playoff game. Unfortunately, they were ousted in the first round by the Buffalo Bills. Now, General Manager James Gladstone and the rest of the brass are working diligently to ensure that this team didn't peak with a Wild Card appearance.

Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL playoffs, Buffalo Bills, Head Coach Liam Coen, Trevor Lawrence, Wild Card — Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) and Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen wait to see the result of a challenge during the second quarter in an NFL football AFC Wild Card playoff matchup, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. Bills lead 10-7 at the half over the Jaguars. [Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union] | Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Jaguars will be back

Every year, there are about two or three teams that made the playoffs the season prior that don't reach the postseason again. The 2025 campaign was a bit of an anomaly in that there were six new contenders: the Chicago Bears, San Francisco 49ers, Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, and Jacksonville Jaguars.

The incredible turnover also suggests that it might have been a fluke year, especially considering the way the old guard went down in flames with former superpowers such as the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Detroit Lions.

CBS Sports' Bryan DeArdo ranked the Jags as the sixth-most likely to return to the postseason next year, among the playoff teams that have already been eliminated: "Jacksonville is one of the few playoff teams that on paper will have an easier schedule in 2026. The Jaguars will face six teams that made the playoff this season after playing eight playoff teams this season."

DraftKings posted initial futures odds for next year's Super Bowl. It's as you'd expect, with co-favorites at +950 and 16 teams — half the league — at +2200 or shorter. Never seen anything like it. Super fun to think about what comes next in the NFL. pic.twitter.com/woereP1USx
— Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) January 26, 2026

"A big challenge for the Jaguars will be the sheer fact that Liam Coen and his team won't sneak up on anyone after being one of the NFL's biggest surprises this year. The Jaguars would help their cause this offseason by bolstering a defense that was just 21st in the league against the pass and 27th in sacks."

However, DeArdo is a bit off in his assessment that Jacksonville won't be able to sneak up on teams next season. It wasn't until after their Week 8 bye that the Jaguars really found their offensive groove.

With a full training camp dedicated to perfecting Liam Coen's system rather than learning it, Jacksonville could be much more lethal out of the gate on that side of the ball in 2026. Plus, they'll have Jakobi Meyers in Week 1, a healthy Travis Hunter Jr., and all of the additions that General Manager James Gladstone will make in the draft, free agency, and on the trade wire.

To see how the Jaguars ensure that they get back to the playoffs next year, sign up for our 100% FREE newsletter that comes straight to your email with the latest news. SIGN UP HERE NOW.

Follow us on X (Twitter) @JaguarsOnSI and @_John_Shipley and make sure you like our Facebook page, WHEN YOU CLICK RIGHT HERE.