Examining Jaguars' Playoff Positioning Entering Week 18

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- The Jacksonville Jaguars have a lot at stake in Week 18, but it feels unlikely that the AFC's No. 1 seed will be one of them.

Yes, the Jaguars could still technically nab the one seed, but the Los Angeles Chargers' announced rest day for Justin Herbert vs. the Denver Broncos creates doubt. We cover all of this and more in today's episode of the Jacksonville Jaguars Insider Podcast.

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According to the New York Times' playoff machine, the Jaguars have a 3% chance at earning the No. 1 seed as of today. The Jaguars, of course, would need to beat the Tennessee Titans and then hope the Miami Dolphins defeat the New England Patriots and the Chargers defeat the Broncos.

As things stand today, the overwhelming odds are the Jaguars will be the No. 3 seed. NYT has the Jaguars with a 60% chance to be the No. 3 seed, a 26% chance to be the No. 2 seed, and then a combined 12% chance to be a No. 5-6 seed.

If things go as expected, this would mean the Jaguars hosting a likely No. 6 seed Buffalo Bills. The Bills have a 49% chance to be the No. 6 seed, while the Houston Texans have a 15% chance and the Chargers have a 28% chance. Drawing the Bills would mean a test against MVP-winner Josh Allen, James Cook, and one of the best NFL franchises of the 2020s.

If the Bills, Texans, Patriots and Broncos win in Week 18, the Jaguars will host Buffalo. If the Bills lose to the New York Jets, the Jaguars would get the Chargers. If the Chargers beat the Broncos, the Jaguars go to the No. 2 seed and host the No. 7 Bills. If the Colts beat the Texans, then the Jaguars host the Texans. And then if Miami beats New England but the others win, the Jaguars would host the Chargers.

Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen reacts to having to take a timeout after a bobbled play during the third fourth in an NFL football game at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, November 16, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. [Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union] | Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

To the Jaguars' credit, they have not paid much attention to playoff scenarios. They have kept the main thing the main thing, and they will be expected to do the very same this week as they host the Titans in their regular-season finale and push for an AFC South title.

“Yeah, just finish the job. Just execute, finish the job," Jaguars running back Travis Etienne said on Sunday. "Don't get lackadaisical, just come in ready to play. Just be who we have been all season. We can't start looking ahead. We’ve just got to continue to be present. I thought we did a great job of that.”

Nov 16, 2025; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen reacts to a play against the Los Angeles Chargers d31 at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images | Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images

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