Do Tampa's 2024 Rankings Make Jaguars a Third Down Threat?

Under Liam Coen, the Tampa Offense was ranked No.1 in third-down success. Will that carry on to Jacksonville and the Jaguars?

Jul 25, 2024; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen and quarterback Kyle Trask (2) during training camp at AdventHealth Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

One of the most talked about stats in-game during a National Football League game is the third-down conversion rate, and the best offenses in football do it well. The Jacksonville Jaguars in 2024 did not perform well when the chains needed to be moved. But another Florida team did, and that bodes well for the 2025 Jacksonville Jaguars.

It's been well established how good Liam Coen's offense in Tampa Bay was in 2024, ranking third and fourth in all four major offensive categories. But how were the Buccaneers on third down? PFF recently shared their rankings of the "Top NFL Offenses on Third Down from 2024," and while the Jaguars are ranked at No. 22, Tampa Bay's success on third down should be encouraging to everybody concerned about football in Duval.

When Tampa needed a first down from 4-6 yards out, Liam Coen dialed up plays that succeeded an NFL-best 62.5%. ranking them first in this category. Pass plays were most successful in this scenario.

PFF on the Buccaneers on Third-and-Medium (4-6 Yards)

Dec 29, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan (15) runs with the ball against the Carolina Panthers in the third quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

"Mayfield completed 70.0% of his passes for 338 yards and six touchdowns in third-and-medium opportunities while averaging 8.4 yards per attempt. Spreading the ball around the offense was a staple of the offense's success in 2024, as was its ability to convert on third-and-medium better than any other team."

Even more difficult is the ability to convert in a situation that is considered a spot defenses want to put offenses in, third and long. However, the Bucs were tops in that weighty task category as well with a 36.4% success rate.

PFF on the Buccaneers on Third-and-Long (7-10+ Yards)

"Converting on third-and-long is one of the toughest tasks in football, but no one did it more than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2024 — and even then, it was at a sub-40% clip. Liam Coen’s excellent play-calling played a significant part, but Baker Mayfield and the offense still executed to a high degree, keeping drives alive in the face of adversity."

The screen game is so imperative on third-and-long, and Coen's offense had it down pat last season, running a short pass play second-most in 2024.

"Tampa Bay's offense was one of the best screen units in the NFL, running those plays at the second-highest rate on third-and-long (17.5%) to create space in the open field for the likes of Bucky Irving, who earned a 90.8 PFF overall grade in his rookie season. The Buccaneers rarely went deep on third-and-long, doing so at just a 9.3% rate. Mayfield often looked to Mike Evans, and the veteran receiver subsequently recorded seven first-down receptions on third-and-long."

PFF on the Buccaneers on Third-and-Long (Overall)

"The Buccaneers were comfortably the best offense at converting on third down in 2024. The unit's cohesive nature, from Liam Coen’s play-calling to Baker Mayfield's high-level play to the consistency of the receivers and their ability to get open and make plays, contributed to their success. The Buccaneers' offense was a well-oiled unit."

"Mayfield earned a 70.9 PFF overall grade on third down, and Tampa Bay created explosive plays on 18.4% of third-down plays. Defenses didn’t just need to worry about defending the chains; they constantly needed to be aware of the Buccaneers' willingness to break off a chunk play."

It is not a surprise to see the Buccaneers as best in show overall in this category, and based on QB Baker Mayfield's track record, anyone can see how valuable Liam Coen is to an offense. Now, let's see it happen in the northern part of F-L-A.

But against Pittsburgh in the preseason opener, the Jags were only 3/10 on third down. So it looks like it needs another week to sink in.

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