Week 10 is Instrumental for Jaguars' Playoff Chase

The Jacksonville Jaguars have grown accustomed to playing important games in Week 10 over the past few years. In 2024, they were just 2-7 going into their matchup with the Minnesota Vikings and had just lost Trevor Lawrence to a shoulder sprain. However, in 2023, they were 6-2, and in 2022, they were just 3-6 but were able to start a late-season surge after their loss to the Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs.

This season, the Jaguars sit at 5-3 ahead of their rematch with the Houston Texans. This is a critical matchup for a variety of different reasons. For one, divisional clashes always carry an extra air of importance. Sweeping the Texans in Head Coach Liam Coen's first year at the helm would be a huge moment for the Jaguars and their new fearless leader.

It'd also move Jacksonville to 2-0 against the AFC South, which could prove instrumental in determining who wins the division come season's end. A loss here would also effectively bury Houston in the playoff race, which is enough to make any Jaguars fan smile. But this game is also key to Jacksonville's own postseason aspirations.

Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL, Houston Texans, Head Coach Liam Coen, Trevor Lawrence — Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen greets quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) after the game of an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Sept. 21, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Texans 17-10. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Week 10 will significantly swing Jacksonville's playoff chances

At 5-3, the Jacksonville Jaguars have to be feeling pretty good about their chances to make the playoffs this year. It's far from a guarantee, though. They're currently in possession of the AFC's seventh seed, but there are several teams that will be hoping to push them out by the end of the season.

There are 11 different organizations that still have realistic postseason hopes in the conference this year. Behind the Jags are the Kansas City Chiefs, the Houston Texans, the Baltimore Ravens, and the Cincinnati Bengals. KC is on a bye, but Houston, Baltimore, and Cincy could close the gap on Jacksonville if the Jaguars don't take care of business against the Texans.

-- WEEK 10 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --

Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game. pic.twitter.com/L16J5YYq6h
— Sebastian (@mrcaseb) November 4, 2025

If they can sweep the Texans this year, it just might convince their divisional rival to shut C.J. Stroud down for the remainder of the campaign and abandon their dwindling playoff hopes. According to the above simulations, a win for Jacksonville in Week 10 would increase its chances of making the postseason to 70 percent, while a loss would drop it down to just 38 percent. On the other hand, defeating the Texans would drop their chances to a measly eight percent, but a Houston upset would keep its hopes alive at 38 percent.

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