What a Win vs. Colts Would Mean for the Jaguars

Four months ago, the expectations were sublime for the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Coming off a 4-13 season the year prior, first-year head coach Liam Coen had a difficult task ahead of him, as many saw the Jaguars as a mediocre team for the 2025 campaign. Fast forward to Week 14, and Jacksonville has not only doubled its win total from last year but has a chance to secure its third nine-win season since 2022 with the possibility of exceeding that total in the four remaining matchups.

Coen Jags — Nov 23, 2025; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) celebrates with head coach Liam Coen after defeating the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Sunday presents an exciting opportunity for the Jaguars against an Indianapolis Colts team that has held onto first place in the AFC South for much of the season. One can only imagine what a win could do for the franchise in Weeks 15 to 18.

What winning on Sunday means for Jacksonville

Lawrence Jags — Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) looks to pass against Tennessee late in their game at Nissan Stadium Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025. | Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Last season, injuries and coaching, among other issues, plagued the team for much of the year, with several games ending in close defeats. The Jaguars have always had a talented roster, albeit an older group on the defensive side of the ball. The biggest concern heading into the season was the offensive line, a group that is still inconsistent but has improved since last year.

Jacksonville has been through an injury bug for the middle portion of the regular season, but the coaching done by Coen and his staff has led to a 5-1 record in one-score games this year, a significant improvement that has the team believing in itself for the first time in a long time. The reason for this has a lot to do with importance in two key areas: the rushing attack and run defense, both of which are comfortably top-five or top-10 in respective categories.

Lloyd Jags — Tennessee Titans tight end Chig Okonkwo (85) is tackled by Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd (0) during the first quarter at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025. | Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Jaguars have an identity: lean on the run game with a creative, yet disciplined attack that mixes in gap and wide zone concepts while utilizing a dominant defensive front against the run that has stonewalled many tailbacks, all while getting sufficient-to-quality play from the quarterback position. It has worked, though the progression from signal-caller Trevor Lawrence has been inconsistent this season under Coen.

This team's identity is what can help them secure first place in the AFC South on Sunday, establishing themselves as a team to be recognized as a legitimate threat in the conference. The Jaguars will need to beat the Colts at least one more time and will have to make a trip to Denver in a few weeks, but a win sets them up splendidly for a spot in the playoffs with a chance to make a serious run.

Will it happen? The Jaguars must defeat the Colts this weekend to bestow more confidence in themselves to make a run. This isn't to say they will make an all-time, unexpected run to Super Bowl LX, but this is a different team than the ones in the past in the Lawrence era.

Sunday is a terrific opportunity, one Jacksonville has to take advantage of. It won't signal the end of an amazing season to this point if they don't, with one more matchup against Indianapolis left, but having the upper hand in the divisional tiebreaker would be all the difference.

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