Where Trevor Lawrence Lands in AFC South QB Hierarchy

The Jacksonville Jaguars' franchise quarterback has his rightful place in the AFC South.

Nov 30, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward (1) hugs Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) following a game at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- For the rest of the 2026 offseason, the AFC South can call the Jacksonville Jaguars just one thing: champions.

The Jaguars should be expected to enter next season as the AFC South favorites, as Liam Coen's squad returns most of their core pieces and coaching staff following a 13-4 season.

But the biggest reason the Jaguars should be the favorites? Because of the quarterback situation considering Trevor Lawrence is coming off the best season of his career. Entering the 2026 offseason, here is how the AFC South quarterback hierarchy shakes out.

No. 1: Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) reacts to a false start during the first quarter of an NFL football AFC Wild Card playoff matchup, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Bills defeated the Jaguars 27-24. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Lets just start with the facts. Of 40 quarterbacks last year with at least 200 dropbacks (including the postseason), here is how Lawrence and the AFC South ranked.

QB	EPA/DB Ranking	Success Rate Ranking
Trevor Lawrence	No. 15	No. 15
CJ Stroud	No. 17	No. 21
Daniel Jones	No. 7	No. 6
Cam Ward	No. 38	No. 38

If we were using strictly last year as a sample size, this sorts itself out quite well. Jones would be in his own tier, then Lawrence and Stroud, and then Ward in last place. With that in mind, things change quite a bit when you isolate the two halves of the season. Jones was on fire to start while Lawrence started slow. Then Lawrence finished strong as Jones hardly produced like a top-20 quarterback during the Colts' second-half slide.

Considering Jones is coming off a serious injury and his worst span of games with the Colts, and Lawrence is entering a healthy offseason fresh off a hot streak, it feels impossible to not have Lawrence ranked as No. 1.

No. 2: Tennessee Titans QB Cam Ward

Jan 4, 2026; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward (1) throws a pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the first quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images | Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images

This one will feel bold, especially considering how brutal Ward's numbers were last season. Ward got better as the year went on despite the Titans being an undignified and unsavable mess from the second he was drafted all the way to their final play of the season. But because of the pieces around him, his numbers hardly ever looked much better.

This is projecting Ward takes a leap, which I think will happen. I do not think Robert Saleh as a head coach and Brian Daboll as an offensive coordinator are exactly a boon for Ward, but let's be frank. The Titans' supporting cast can't be any worse than it was last year. With the natural progression of a second year, I think Ward makes a jump.

No. 3: Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud

Houston Texans quarterback CJ. Stroud (7) looks on after the game of an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Sept. 21, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Texans 17-10. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I have been a fan of Stroud's game since he entered the league; he and Lawrence have had some seriously entertaining battles against one another. With that said, it is hard to forget what the final image of Stroud was. He was absolutely awful in both playoff games for Houston, committing back-breaking turnover after back-breaking turnover.

Perhaps it is falling victim to recency bias, but Stroud has not improved as much as he should have since his strong rookie year. This is largely due to how the Texans have built their team, but that doesn't seem due to change, either. Stroud has a steep hill to climb after the woeful effort he put forth in the finale.

No. 4: Indianapolis Colts QB Daniel Jones

Dec 7, 2025; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) looks over the Jacksonville Jaguars defense pre-snap during the first half at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

I could be discounting Jones, but I don't think so. The Colts' hot streak on offense to start the year was impressive last year. It would been even more impressive if they maintained such success past the season's half point, but that didn't happen as Jones reverted back to his old ways of errant accuracy and turnover-worthy throws.

Jones certainly has more talent than many gave him credit for. And since we have seen him catch fire before, the possibility always remains that he could again. But coming off an injury and a poor recent streak of playing, it is hard to be overly optimistic about Jones right now ... unless you are Chris Ballard or Shane Steichen, of course.

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