Jets' Fans hold up "It's About Time" sign in 2010 — Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

Frelund's NFL Win Total Projections Land Jets in Playoffs

NFL Network analytics expert sees Gang Green stacking the fifth-most victories in AFC

Author:
Ralph Ventre
Publish date:
May 14, 2023 8:04 AM EDT

In this story:

The New York Jets are going to the NFL Playoffs in 2023 according to initial win projection totals from data analyst Cynthia Frelund.

Following the NFL Schedule release, Frelund ran the numbers through her system and produced predicted results for all 16 AFC clubs. In terms of regular season victories, the Super Bowl LVII champion Kansas City Chiefs topped the conference with 11.6 projected wins.

The Jets earned 9.8 victories in the predictive analysis, ranking fifth overall in the AFC. The Green & White came in right behind the AFC North member Baltimore Ravens' 9.9 projected wins.

That win total slots Gang Green second in the AFC East and lands the franchise its first NFL postseason berth since 2010.

Buffalo was tabbed for its fourth consecutive AFC East crown, earning 10.6 wins by Frelund's calculations. The Miami Dolphins (9.6 wins) ranked sixth overall in the AFC with the New England Patriots (7.9) slotted 13th out of 16 teams.

From Cynthia Frelund's "Each AFC team's win total projection for 2023 season":

9.8 Wins - New York Jets (WILDCARD)

The Jets have the hardest four-game stretch to start the season, per my math:

Week 1: Bills
Week 2: at Cowboys
Week 3: Patriots
Week 4: Chiefs

They also have the hardest first six games of any team, with a trip to Denver in Week 5 followed by a home game against Philadelphia in Week 6. One of the biggest question areas for New York is the health of its O-line -- especially considering most of the teams the Jets face early on seem to specialize in defensive pressure. And let's not overlook that it typically takes a beat for a new QB -- even one of Aaron Rodgers' elite level -- to establish a rhythm and chemistry with a (mostly) different set of pass catchers.

- Cynthia Frelund

Frelund, a NFL Network analytics expert, explained the process behind her projections by writing, "Here's how to read these win projections: Using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 11, I ran 100,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games. (A quick note: Barring injuries, which are typically the biggest source of uncertainty, I have made roster projections using the best information available. It's May, for goodness' sake, so you should check back for the updated versions of these win-total projections just before the season starts.) These simulations yielded a projected win total for each team, which, thanks to the multitude of factors involved, is not always a round number. The top seven teams in each conference are my projected playoff participants."

The Jets last won 10 games in a season when Ryan Fitzpatrick was taking the snaps in 2015. Gang Green jumped out to a 7-4 start in its second season under head coach Robert Saleh, but lost six straight contests to close out the 2022 campaign.

Even with a difficult schedule, the Jets are projected to add 2-3 victories to their record in 2023 and it has everything to do with the arrival of Aaron Rodgers.