3 Packers Schedule Factors That Will Actually Matter (and 2 That Won’t)

The Green Bay Packers have their schedule, and it’s been sliced, diced and dissected. But which of those factors really matter? And which lack a basis in reality?

Here are three factors that will matter and two that surprisingly will not.

Will Matter No. 1: Relatively Light Schedule

Time will tell if this will really matter. The Packers, obviously, will have to win the games on the field. But, when Micah Parsons is coming down home stretch in his comeback from a torn ACL, what a tremendous blessing for coach Matt LaFleur to open the season against four opponents that did not qualify for the playoffs in 2025.

Playing at the Vikings in Week 1 won’t be easy regardless of who’s on the field for Green Bay. From there, the Packers will play at the Jets, who should be greatly improved, and host the Falcons, who have a new coach. The opening stretch will end at Tampa Bay in Week 4.

If all goes well, the Packers will have at least a couple wins and Parsons will be on the field for the Week 5 home game against the Bears.

Won’t Matter No. 1: Backloaded Home Schedule

It’s not entirely true that Green Bay has lost its cold-field advantage over the years. Under LaFleur, the Packers are a resounding 14-4 in regular-season home games played in December and January. However, they are 4-3 the last three seasons.

Moreover, in games with a kickoff temperature of 25 degrees or colder, regardless of venue, they are 4-3 under LaFleur. Including playoffs, they are 5-4.

It’s not just that, though. Look at who’s coming to Green Bay at the end of the season.

Week 14: The Buffalo Bills play their home games in the harsh elements of Western New York.

Week 15: The Miami Dolphins should be a (relatively) easy win, regardless of the date and venue.

Week 17: The Houston Texans have one of the best defenses in the NFL, making them practically built for cold-weather games.

Week 18: The Detroit Lions might play indoors but they live in the cold and can practice in the cold, so it’s not as if a 15-degree day would be a shock to their system. They won at Chicago in Week 18 of last season and, of course, shocked the Packers in the 2022 finale to keep them out of the playoffs.

“You’ve just got to take it one week at a time,” LaFleur told Packers.com’s Larry McCarren. “Certainly, I think it’s always important to start the season on a good note, but having four out of five at the end of the year, especially with the conditions that we get up here in Green Bay, could be a big advantage for us.”

Will Matter No. 2: Lack of Real Bye Week

The Packers won’t have a bye this week. In the NFL’s never-ending quest to increase revenue, they created a Thanksgiving Eve game. After their official bye “week,” the Packers will play at the Rams on a Wednesday night.

As detailed by Pro Football Talk, players are supposed to get at least four consecutive days off during their bye, including a Saturday and Sunday. Instead, the Packers will practice on Saturday, Sunday and Monday, travel on Tuesday and play on Wednesday, the same routine as practicing on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, traveling on Saturday and playing on Sunday.

Bye weeks are important. It’s simple common sense in such a rigorous, violent sport. Over the last five years, teams coming off their bye are 88-71-1. That’s a .553 winning percentage. The Packers won’t have that advantage.

“It’s a different situation,” LaFleur told McCarren. “Not coming off a traditional bye where you have a full week, it’s going to be kind of a mini-bye, and then we have another mini-bye right after that game. It’s just one of those things that with as popular as the NFL has gotten, you’ve just got to get comfortable being uncomfortable.”

For a double-whammy, the Lions will be coming off their bye when they host the Packers in Week 7.

Won’t Matter No. 2: Mini-Byes

The Packers won’t have a traditional bye week but they will have four mini-byes following a Thursday night home game against the Falcons in Week 3, a Thursday night home game against the Panthers in Week 8, their make-believe Week 11 bye and their Wednesday night game against the Rams in Week 12.

Mini-byes should be helpful, too. Getting a few extra days of rest to face a team that played on Sunday should be an asset.

Last year, teams that played on Thursday and then played the following Sunday went only 19-17. One of those losses was by Green Bay, which beat Washington in Week 2 but lost at Cleveland in Week 3. In 2024, teams were 16-20 following their mini-bye.

In 2024, the Packers had back-to-back Thursday games. They lost to the Lions the week after Thanksgiving but won at Seattle the following Sunday night. In 2023, the Packers lost to the Lions on a Thursday and then lost at Las Vegas the following Monday. In 2022, the Packers lost to Tennessee on a Thursday and then lost at Philadelphia the following Sunday night. In 2021, the Packers won at Arizona on a Thursday and then lost at Kansas City the following Sunday, though that game can be discarded because Jordan Love started for Aaron Rodgers after he tested positive for COVID.

The Packers won following their mini-byes in 2019 and 2020. That gives LaFleur a 3-4 record.

Will Matter No. 3: Primetime

The Packers have been primetime players under LaFleur with a 14-6 record under the lights at Lambeau Field, though they lost to the Eagles and Ravens during the second half of last season.

Of Green Bay’s nine home games this season, five will be played in primetime: Thursday night against Atlanta in Week 3, Sunday night against Dallas in Week 6, Thursday night against Carolina in Week 8, Sunday night against Buffalo in Week 14 and Monday night against Houston in Week 17.

Here’s a closer look at all five games, with Green Bay favored in each.

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