Is NFC North Still NFL’s Toughest Division?

GREEN BAY, Wis. – How dominant was the NFC North last season?

- The Green Bay Packers went 11-6 but weren’t even close to competing for the division title. In fact, it finished tied for the most wins in NFL history for a third-place finisher.

- The four teams combined for a .662 winning percentage, the highest for any division in league history.

- The teams combined for a plus-384 scoring differential, the highest for any division in league history.

- The four teams combined for 45 wins. The AFC West was a distant second with 40 wins.

- The Lions (plus-33), Packers (plus-13) and Vikings (plus-10) were double-digits in net touchdowns; the Bears were only minus-1. Combined, they were plus-55. The AFC West was next at plus-14.

- All four teams were inside the top 10 in turnovers, with Minnesota and Green Bay plus-12, Detroit plus-9 and Chicago plus-8.

It all went to heck in the playoffs, but four months of superiority is impossible to overlook.

Turning the page, will the NFC North dominate again?

Pro Football Focus used projected win totals to measure the strength of divisions entering the 2025 season. The NFC North is projected to win a combined 37 games. That’s No. 1 – but tied with the AFC West and NFC West.

“The Lions, Vikings and Packers all finished the 2024 season ranked inside the top 10 of PFF’s power rankings. The Bears were the only team in the NFC North to fall outside that range, landing at No. 24. However, with significant upgrades to their interior offensive line — which posted just a 70.1 blocking grade — and sweeping changes to the coaching staff, Chicago is a legitimate dark horse to contend for a wild-card spot.”

At FanDuel Sportsbook, Detroit’s win total is 10.5, followed by Green Bay with 9.5 and Chicago and Minnesota with 8.5.

It’s important to remember the NFL’s schedule rotation and how that could impact teams. Last year, the NFC North faced the NFC West and AFC South. The AFC South was the worst division in football last season with a combined record of 25-43. The NFC West was 34-34, with the Packers benefitting from the Rams’ early-season injuries and the 49ers’ down season.

This year, the NFC North will face the NFC East and AFC North. The NFC East last year went 36-32, with Philadelphia and Washington reaching the NFC Championship Game and Dallas potentially poised to rebound with a healthy Dak Prescott. The AFC North went 34-34, with Baltimore and Pittsburgh reaching the playoffs last year and Cincinnati falling just short despite Joe Burrow’s superb play.

By projected wins, the AFC North is fourth and the NFC East is fifth.

With the Lions’ proposal to change playoff seeding to overall record and discarding the importance of winning the division, the Packers’ will have to win the NFC North in order to guarantee a playoff game at Lambeau Field.

“Coaching transitions in Detroit and a quarterback change in Minnesota add some uncertainty,” Sikkema wrote, “but top to bottom, this division is loaded with competitive rosters. Every NFC North matchup in 2025 figures to be a battle — a true murderer’s row on the divisional slate.”

The power of the NFC North isn’t why the Packers put extra weight on drafting players who “love football” and have faced challenges in life, but it won’t hurt.

“I think it gives you perspective, No. 1,” coach Matt LaFleur said at the rookie minicamp. “I think resiliency is key, and I think you see it especially in our league or any competitive league. There’s going to be moments of adversity and there’s going to be some struggle. And if you’re not tough-minded, it’s hard to make it through the other side of that.

“I think we’ve seen it with our team over the course of two years, and as painful as it is in the moment from a team standpoint, sometimes you’re better for going through it.”

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