Make or Break for Packers? Here’s What History Says About Week 1

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The biggest game on the NFL schedule, as Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur would quickly tell you, is the next game on the schedule. So, automatically, the Packers’ Week 1 showdown at the Minnesota Vikings is important. Throw in that it’s against an NFC North rival, and the importance gets ratcheted up.

However, there’s no denying that Week 1 has outsized importance on the fate of the season. The numbers are simply impossible to ignore.

Rotowire examined the results from Week 1 over the last 10 NFL seasons. The key takeaways:

Playoffs: Teams that win in Week 1 have a 59.0 percent chance of making the playoffs. Teams that lose in Week 1 have a 25.6 percent chance of playing beyond Week 18.

Win division: Teams that win in Week 1 have a 35.3 percent chance of winning their division, which means at least one home playoff game. Teams that lose in Week 1 have a 16.0 percent chance.

Reach divisional round: Teams that win in Week 1 have a 32.7 percent chance of advancing to the divisional round of the playoffs. Teams that lose in Week 1 have an 18.6 percent chance.

Reach conference championship game: Teams that win in Week 1 have a 19.2 percent chance of advancing to the NFC or AFC title game. Teams that lose in Week 1 have a 6.4 percent chance.

Reach the Super Bowl: Teams that win in Week 1 have a 9.0 percent chance of reaching the Super Bowl. Teams that lose in Week 1 have a 3.8 percent chance. The Patriots lost in Week 1 last season but advanced to the Super Bowl.

Win the Super Bowl: Teams that win in Week 1 have a 4.5 percent chance of winning the Lombardi Trophy. Teams that lose in Week 1 have a 1.9 percent chance of winning it all. The Seattle Seahawks lost in Week 1 last season but won the Lombardi.

The Packers will open the season at Minnesota. For teams that win on the road in Week 1, they have a 61.5 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, which is slightly better than the overall mark of 59.0 percent. Week 1 road warriors also have a better chance to reach the conference championship game (21.8 percent), advance to the Super Bowl (10.3 percent) and win it all (5.1 percent).

Matt LaFleur in Week 1

Coach Matt LaFleur is 4-3 in Week 1. The Packers reached the playoffs following all four wins. Here are the yearly results.

2025: The Packers beat the Lions 27-13 at Lambeau but settled for the No. 7 seed. 2024: The Packers lost to the Eagles in Brazil 34-29 but advanced as the No. 7 seed. 2023: The Packers beat the Bears 38-20 in Chicago in Jordan Love’s debut as the full-time starter and earned the No. 7 seed.

2022: To kick off the final season of the Aaron Rodgers era, the Packers lost 23-7 at Minnesota and missed the playoffs. 2021: The Packers were crushed 38-3 to the Saints in Jacksonville. They rebounded to go 13-4 and earn the No. 1 seed. 2020: The Packers won 43-34 at Minnesota to kick off the COVID season. They went 13-3 and reached the NFC Championship Game. 2019: The Packers won 10-3 at Chicago and reached the NFC Championship Game.

The Challenge This Year

The Packers will play at the Vikings on Sunday, Sept. 13. The key matchup will be the Vikings’ powerful defense squaring off against a Jordan Love-led Packers offense that has two new starters on the offensive line and a new starting running back.

“You watch some of the preseason stuff,” LaFleur said of facing Brian Flores’ defense. “I know they’re not showing everything, obviously. We’ve gone against each other a lot of times now, and I would tell you this: I think Flores does as good as anybody creating problems for offenses. It’s a highly aggressive defense and, especially Week 1, you’re not really quite sure what’s going to happen. But I’m pretty sure that I can bank on it that they’re going to bring a lot of pressure.”

The first game of the season is all about unscouted looks. Flores will have tricks up his sleeve to combat what the Jordan Love-led passing attack does best and perhaps take advantage of the absence of Josh Jacobs and the ascension of MarShawn Lloyd. Similarly, LaFleur and Love will hope to have answers for Flores’ bread-and-butter pressures.

“Week 1 will be a test,” Love said. “It’s a test for everybody going against this defense, especially for the O-line, running back – anybody in protection. There’s a lot of different looks you’re getting thrown your way, a lot of things we might not have seen from our defense that they’re going to be bringing.

“So, I think for a guy that hasn’t played as much ball, it’s stay locked in on the protection game. And like I mentioned with other guys, when you get the ball, just go. Go do what you do. So, I know he’ll be great when he gets the ball in his hands. But I think it’s all those other things – just getting up to speed and trying to be as best as you can.

When the Vikings have the ball, it will be new Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray facing new Packers defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. Murray, of course, was Gannon’s starting quarterback in Arizona from 2023 through 2025, so they know each other well.

Asked how much LaFleur is learning on Gannon to prepare for Murray, LaFleur replied: “I think J.G. is leaning on J.G. to prepare for that.”

Did the Packers screw up the decision at quarterback? ⬇️ https://t.co/MdDRApJGvj
— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) September 3, 2026

SIGN UP FOR OUR FREE DAILY PACKERS NEWSLETTER

Add us as a preferred source on Google