Packers Rise in Latest Playoff Standings But Check Out Strength of Schedule

Here are the latest NFC playoff standings after the Green Bay Packers beat the New York Giants and with a pivotal part of the schedule coming up.

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (9) catches a touchdown against New York Giants cornerback Deonte Banks. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers moved up from seventh place to sixth in the latest NFC playoff standings, but there remains little margin for error ahead of a critical stretch of games.

On Sunday, the Packers will host the Minnesota Vikings. Then, on a short week, they’ll play at the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving. After that, it’s a home game against the Chicago Bears. That’s a potentially make-or-break stretch of three consecutive NFC North matchups.

Here are the latest NFC standings after Week 11.  

NFC Playoff Standings

1. Philadelphia Eagles (first place, NFC East): 8-2

2. Los Angeles Rams (first place, NFC West): 8-2

3. Chicago Bears (first place, NFC North): 7-3

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (first place, NFC South): 6-4

5. Seattle Seahawks (second place, NFC West): 7-3

6. Green Bay Packers (second place, NFC North): 6-3-1

7. San Francisco 49ers (third place, NFC West): 7-4

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8. Detroit Lions (third place, NFC North): 6-4

9. Carolina Panthers (second place, NFC South): 6-5

10. Dallas Cowboys (second place, NFC East): 4-5-1

11. Minnesota Vikings (fourth place, NFC North): 4-6

12. Arizona Cardinals (fourth place, NFC West): 3-7

13. Atlanta Falcons (third place, NFC South): 3-7

14. Washington Commanders (third place, NFC East): 3-8

15. New Orleans Saints (fourth place, NFC South): 2-8

16. New York Giants (fourth place, NFC East): 2-9

If The Season Were to End Today …

The Packers as the No. 6 seed would play at the NFC North-leading Bears in the wild-card round.

However, the NFC playoff race is so tight that there can – and probably will – be drastic changes every week. Just look at last week, with the Lions tumbling from third place to eighth by losing to the Eagles on Sunday night.

With Green Bay a half-game behind Chicago for the NFC North lead but a half-game ahead of Detroit in the race for the final playoff spot, every game for the rest of the season is going to be critical.

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (9) catches the decisive touchdown pass at the Giants. | Yannick Peterhans / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

“That’s our goal from the start of the week. Our goal is just to go 1-0,” receiver Christian Watson said after helping beat the Giants with two touchdown catches. “Coach is really harping on it throughout the entire week. It doesn’t matter if it’s 48-47 or it’s zero to three. A win’s a win. We’ve got to find a way to get it done. It means a lot to us as a team to be able to get the dub, we’ll learn from the mistakes and correct them and move on to next week.”

Strength of Schedule

According to Tankathon, the Packers and Bears have the toughest remaining schedules, with their final seven opponents having a combined .592 winning percentage.

“Obviously, the divisional games are absolutely critical, and you talk about this three-game stretch, but really all that matters is this one game for us right now,” coach Matt LaFleur said on Monday.

The Packers don’t have an easy game left on the schedule, though you could easily argue that no game is easy for them after they had to rally past the Giants on Sunday.

Of their seven games, four are against teams with winning records. The other three games? At home against Minnesota on Sunday, at home against Baltimore – winners of four straight – in Week 17 and at Minnesota in Week 18. The Vikings are 4-6 and the Ravens are 5-5.

Chicago will play six teams with winning records, with a home game against Cleveland in Week 15 being the only on-paper layup.

Can either team hold onto their playoff spots? Both teams have woeful strength of victories. The teams Green Bay has defeated have a .371 winning percentage. That’s not very good, but it’s far better than Chicago, which has a strength of victory of .285 and a strength of schedule of .348.

The Packers will host the Bears in Week 14 and then travel to Chicago in Week 16.

For the teams Green Bay leads in the playoff race, No. 7 San Francisco’s strength of schedule is .508 (12th-toughest), No. 8 Detroit’s is .535 (ninth-toughest) and No. 9 Carolina’s is .590 (third-toughest).

Packers Playoff Chances

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Packers have a 77.9 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. It was only 68.7 percent before last week’s games.

After losing to Philadelphia, Green Bay's chances of winning the NFC North were slashed 51.4 percent to 28.4 percent. Now, it’s 44.1 percent, ahead of the Lions (33.5 percent) and Bears (22.1 percent).

According to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator, Green Bay’s playoff probability actually fell from 81 percent to 75 percent. Its NFC North chances did improve, though, from 31 percent to 35 percent.

Why would Green Bay’s playoff chances shrink? Probably because the Lions are right on their heels, with the rematch at Ford Field next week.

Sunday’s Packers-Vikings game is huge. With a win, Green Bay’s playoff chances would improve to 81 percent. With a loss, it would tumble to 58 percent. The Packers are 6.5-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook.

According to Playoff Status, Green Bay’s playoff chances improved just a bit this week, from 61 percent to 63 percent. Chicago is the favorite to win the North at 41 percent, followed by Green Bay at 31 percent and Detroit at 26 percent.

The NFC North odds at FanDuel Sportsbook changed dramatically. Last week, Detroit was a rather strong favorite at -125, followed by Green Bay at +175 and Chicago at +750. Now, Green Bay is a slight favorite at +140, followed by Detroit at +150 and Chicago at +300.

To reach the playoffs in the NFC, the Rams and Eagles are locks of the century at -10000. Seattle is -1800, Tampa Bay is -1050, San Francisco is -590, Detroit and Green Bay are -350, Chicago is -148. That’s eight teams jockeying for seven playoff spots.

It’s going to be a tough road, but LaFleur thinks the mental toughness coming from wins like the one at New York will help.

“I will say that it’s an imperfect game, and you just want to see guys continue to fight and bounce back when it’s not going your way,” he said on Monday. “It’s disappointing when you have an opportunity to make a play and you don’t make the play. There’s a natural – I don’t want to say letdown – but it can be deflating if you allow it to be, and despite all the adversity, I was really proud of our guys, how they just kept playing.

“And I think if you do that enough, typically you’re going to come out on the better side of it, which is ultimately what happened.”

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