Predicting Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to Bears … Again

Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love are going to have their hands full against Ben Johnson and Chicago’s powerful defense.

Chicago Bears coach Ben Johnson is shown during the game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field last year. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers used to own the Chicago Bears. When the Bears walk onto Lambeau Field on Sunday for the 214th meeting in the rivalry’s storied history, Ben Johnson will have a pen to sign the deed.

After snapping Green Bay’s 11-game winning streak in the series, the Bears have won three of the last four meetings. Those include, of course, Green Bay’s collapse in December and its epic collapse in the playoffs.

Here are three reasons why the Bears will win again and officially stamp themselves as the team to beat in this new era of the rivalry.

Part 1 of our weekly pair of stories explores 3️⃣ reasons why the Packers will beat the Bears on Sunday. ⬇️https://t.co/cZq1P0Kxm6

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) October 10, 2026

1. Trench Warfare

Games are won and lost in the trenches. Everyone knows that – especially after the Packers were blown out in the fourth quarter by the Vikings, barely beat the Jets and were crushed by the Falcons.

Green Bay’s offensive line took a step forward in last week’s escape from Tampa. Jordan Love typically had time to throw the football and the running backs got into the open field a couple times.

While Green Bay’s offensive line has improved, Chicago’s offensive line is an impenetrable force. Look at the teams’ recent games against the Jets for proof.

In Week 2, the Packers rushed the ball 18 times for 63 yards, quarterback Jordan Love was sacked three times and they went 1-of-9 on third down. In Week 4, the Bears rushed for 232 yards, quarterback Tyson Bagent was sacked once and they went 7-of-15 on third down.

In other words, the Jets’ defense handled the Packers but got manhandled by the Bears.

Chicago’s starting left tackle, Braxton Jones, is on injured reserve, but left guard Joe Thuney, right guard Jonah Jackson and center Garrett Bradbury – the pivot in the pivot after Drew Dalman’s retirement – form one of the top interior trios in the league, and Darnell Wright is about as good as it gets at right tackle.

Top running back Kyle Monangai is out with a toe injury, but will it matter with that powerhouse crew opening the holes? Tyson Bagent, obviously, isn’t Caleb Williams, but any competent quarterback can complete passes from a clean pocket.

Personnel decisions have been factors. In 2025, the Packers signed Aaron Banks in free agency in hopes of adding some needed talent and power to the offensive line. That $77 million signing was a disaster, though, with Banks set to be inactive for the fourth time in five games.

The Bears, meanwhile, traded a fourth-round pick to the Chiefs for Thuney and a sixth-round pick to the Rams for Jackson. Those trades were home runs – a big reason why the most dominant unit on the field on Sunday will be Chicago’s line.

2. Ben Johnson vs. Matt LaFleur

The Packers were in control against the Bears in Week 16 but melted down and lost. The Packers were in complete control in the playoff rematch but self-destructed in historic fashion.

With those two games a big part of the equation, the Packers are 2-7 in their last nine games. They no longer look like a team capable of competing for a championship. They are guilty of too many stupid penalties, they drop too many passes, they fumble too often. When push comes to shove, are the Packers capable of doing the pushing?

The Bears don’t think so.

“I feel like he [coach Ben Johnson] wants to beat them really bad, like everybody else in the room, every Chicago fan,” receiver Luther Burden said. “We just want to beat them real bad and make them quit.”

What a phrase. “Make them quit.”

Green Bay Packers coach Matt Lafleur, left, walks off the field after last year's playoff loss at Chicago. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

It’s not all that different from what then-Jets coach Robert Saleh told his team at halftime in a game at Lambeau Field in 2022.

“The mindset to go 60 minutes," said Saleh. "And to give them 60 percent more. And just keep giving them body blow after body blow after body blow. And just keep hitting them, keep hitting them in the mouth. We felt like if we could just keep taking them down to deep water, they’ll find out they can’t swim. It was just a mindset.”

There are questions about the Packers’ talent, especially with tens of millions of dollars sidelined. There are questions, as well, about their mental toughness and ability to weather the storms that undoubtedly will come against top opponents.

Johnson is an X-factor coach. He was as offensive coordinator of the Lions and he is while guiding the Bears’ return from the NFL abyss.

“It’s a really good offense, man,” Packers defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon said. “Ben does an unbelievable job. I think his coaches do an unbelievable job of getting their guys to schematically execute, technically execute plays the right way. They block really well, they run really well, they throw and catch really well, and he puts them in positions to put the defense at a disadvantage. That’s why he is who he is.”

Meanwhile, this is what tight end Tucker Kraft said about LaFleur’s offense: “Defenses know what we’re going to run but we just outexecute their look.”

He didn’t mean that in a derogatory way. It was Kraft answering a question about why he believes the Packers’ offense is close to hitting its stride – that once the execution comes, the points will follow.

Nobody would ever call Johnson’s offense predictable. He’s one of the smartest play-designers and play-callers in the league – and he knows it. He’s brash, yes. And, like any bully, it’ll be interesting to see how he handles getting punched in the mouth.

To be sure, the Packers-Bears rivalry is back because there’s a coaching rivalry, too. Johnson keeps needling LaFleur because he thinks he can get away with it. Until LaFleur’s team rises to the occasion, it’ll be clear which coach has the upper hand.

3. Third-Down Domination

Last week, Green Bay got its best offensive line performance of the season. The running game showed some life and the pass protection held up.

And yet, the Packers went 2-of-10 on third down – sending the worst third-down attack into the league plunging even further to a ghastly 26.1 percent. Dating to 1972, when the league began tracking third-down data, that’s the 12th-worst of the last 54 seasons. It’s the fifth-worst over the last two decades. The Packers have never finished at worse than 33.7 percent over that period.

Meanwhile, Chicago’s defense is second in the league at 23.7 percent. It just pitched a 0-for-7 shutout against the Jets. Chicago has given up a league-low nine conversions in 33 passing attempts. Green Bay has a league-low 12 third-down conversions through the air.

Jordan Love’s third-down passer rating is a woeful 64.7. A total of 28 quarterbacks have thrown at least 20 passes on third down. Love’s completion rate of 46.3 percent ranks 27th. He is third in third-down attempts but 19th in third-down conversions.

“We talked about the No. 1 factor being the pass game efficiency on both sides of the ball,” Bears coach Ben Johnson said. “To put it in a layman's terms, if our quarterback plays better than your quarterback, we have a good shot of winning the ballgame.

“I felt like the last two weeks, in particular, we really affected the quarterback through both the rush and the coverage aspect of it. Whether we're rushing four or whether we're bringing pressure I think these guys are all working together at a high clip right now.”

Green Bay’s average third down requires 7.9 yards, according to Stathhead. Only four teams are facing a longer distance. That’s one reason why the team has a rather incredible third-down play selection of 42 passes and four runs.

“We got to be better on first and second down, cleaning up penalties, obviously getting positive plays,” Love said. “But that’s the game. You’re always trying to put yourself in third-and-manageable and avoid third-and-longs, and that’s obviously a big part of why our numbers are so bad on third down is we’re in some tough third-down looks.

“But that’s never an excuse. No matter what it is, we got to find a way to go out there and execute and convert some of these third downs. But it definitely starts with cleaning up the penalties and some of the negative plays on first and second down.”

Part 1 of our weekly pair of stories explores 3️⃣ reasons why the Packers will beat the Bears on Sunday. ⬇️https://t.co/cZq1P0Kxm6

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) October 10, 2026

SIGN UP FOR OUR FREE DAILY PACKERS NEWSLETTER