What Size-Speed History Says About Matthew Golden’s Packers Impact

The Green Bay Packers drafted Matthew Golden in the first round of this year’s draft. Here’s what history says about rookie-year impact, specifically among receivers with below-average height and big-time speed.

Wide receiver Matthew Golden holds a Green Bay Packers jersey after being selected with the 23rd pick of the 2025 NFL Draft. / Tork Mason / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Back in the 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust days of college football, most receivers were not prepared to make an immediate impact in the NFL.

Beginning with the 1970 merger through 2014, 15 receivers over a span of 45 draft classes had 1,000 yards as a rookie, including only six who hit 1,100 yards. Contrast that to the 10 drafts from 2015 through 2024. A dozen receivers had 1,000 yards as a rookie, including eight with at least 1,100 yards.

It’s that history that suggests Matthew Golden, the Green Bay Packers’ first-round pick, could be a significant contributor as a rookie.

“I think the world’s changed a little bit,” Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said after drafting Golden. “It always takes receivers a little bit of time to get going. It used to be kind of that end of Year 2, middle of Year 3 when things slowed down for them and they could really produce. We’ve had a lot of history where that happened.

“I think because of high school football and the way they throw it around, the 7-on-7s, and just some of the things have changed on the lower levels, guys are coming in and making an impact quicker, and I certainly think Matthew has the opportunity to do that.”

Golden played one season at Texas, where he emerged as the Longhorns’ go-to receiver down the stretch. The Packers are hoping Golden can make similar Year 1 strides.

At the Scouting Combine, Golden ran his 40 in a blazing 4.29 seconds, making him the fastest receiver in this year’s draft and ranking him well into the 99th percentile historically among receivers. On the other hand, he measured only 5-foot-11, which puts him in the 34th percentile at the position.

So, while rookie receivers have started making more of an impact, what does the history say about fast receivers and short receivers?

Using Stathead to break down the past 10 drafts from 2015 through 2024:

Rookie Receivers, Overall

1,100 yards: 8.

1,000 yards: 12.

800 yards: 31.

700 yards: 41.

80 receptions: 10.

70 receptions: 17.

60 receptions: 31.

50 receptions: 48.

Rookie Receivers, Height

Golden is short for a receiver. How much does that matter, if at all? Here’s the breakdown.

6-foot or taller | Shorter than 6-foot

1,100 yards: 8 | 0.

1,000 yards: 11 | 1.

800 yards: 27 | 4.

700 yards: 33 | 8.

80 receptions: 9 | 1.

70 receptions: 14 | 3.

60 receptions: 22 | 9.

50 receptions: 33 | 15.

Some of the disparity is based on sample size, as you might expect. There simply are more receivers who are taller than shorter. After all, it’s not as if being 6 foot tall is an imposing figure in everyday life, let alone in the NFL.

So, this was interesting: Over the past decade, 283 receivers who were at least 6 foot caught at least one pass as a rookie compared to 111 who were shorter. Of the 6-foot- group, 3.9 percent made a big splash with 1,000 yards as a rookie and 11.7 percent had at least 700 yards. Of the shorter group, 0.9 percent hit 1,000 yards and 7.2 percent had at least 700 yards.

In other words, shorter receivers not only have a harder time making it to the NFL, they have a harder time making an immediate impact.

“He’s kind of above the Mendoza line [to play] outside [receiver] but not by much,” Gutekunst said, referencing a .200 batting average in baseball named after former Major League shortstop Mario Mendoza.

“Obviously, he has (great speed). You watch him, we thought arguably he had some of the best hands in the draft. Not only coming back to him and running through it but when he tracks it over his shoulder and stuff, too. He’s a strong athlete. He’s really versatile, he’s going to do a lot of things, but we certainly felt that he could play outside and that would work for us.”

Rookie Receivers, Speed

Few players have the startling stopwatch speed of Golden. From 2015 through 2024, 28 receivers who were invited to the Scouting Combine ran their 40-yard dash in 4.35 seconds or faster.

That will be worthy of its own deep dive, but here are the Cliff Notes. Only two of those players had 1,000-yard seasons as a rookie. Last year, Jacksonville’s Brian Thomas caught 87 passes for 1,282 yards. At 6-foot-2 7/8, he’s more than just a speed receiver. In 2021, Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase caught 81 passes for 1,455 yards. He’s 6-foot 3/8, so doesn’t have imposing height but he is 1 3/8 inches taller than Golden.

Washington’s Terry McLaurin and Seattle’s DK Metcalf had 900-yard seasons as rookies in 2019.

“You can’t coach 4.29,” coach Matt LaFleur said after the draft.

The Packers needed Golden’s speed to help make up for the loss of Christian Watson. A scout said Golden is a “more far-along version” of Watson.

“You can always use a lot of speed at receiver,” LaFleur added. “Obviously, Golden ran what he ran. Anytime a guy is breaking sub 4.3s, you know he’s legitimately fast. I think what’s so attractive about a guy like Golden is not only is he  fast, but he’s got, I’d say, elite hands.”

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