ESPN projections indicate Panthers haven't really improved despite great offseason

Carolina put together strong free agent and draft classes, but they also have a deep hole to dig out of.

Dec 29, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Anthony Nelson (98) sacks Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) in the third quarter at Raymond James Stadium. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Carolina Panthers were better than their 5-12 record suggested they were last season. Among those 12 losses were one-possession, heartbreaking defeats against the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, who went on to meet in the Super Bowl. In any case, the Panthers finished the 2024 campaign on a high note and have followed it up with a strong offseason.

At least on paper, Carolina's front office upgraded all three levels of their defense in free agency, then added a couple of badly-needed pass-catching weapons in the draft as they continued to build up what had been the worst defense in the league.

Despite all that good work and positive trends they have going, it seems like ESPN's annual FPI projections are completely unimpressed. According to those rankings, the Panthers are just the 28th best team in the league going into 2025.

In fact, ESPN's numbers suggest they might even finish worse than last year. Their projections for the 2026 NFL draft have Carolina picking at No. 6 overall, two spots higher than this year. They also have a projected 30% chance of landing a top-five overall pick.

While you can do a lot of good with a top-five pick, if the Panthers finish that high in that draft order it'll be either because something went terribly wrong - or the apparent roster improvements on paper are a case of action over achievement.

Needless to say, we disagree with those projections. Ending the year with a 9-8 record should be this team's goal in 2025 - and assuming Bryce Young doesn't lose all of the progress we saw in the second half of last season that should be very much within reach.

Injuries can derail any team's goals of course, but outside of a rash of major ones to key roster pieces we don't see the Panthers finishing any worse than 7-10.

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