The Carolina Panthers Can and Should Move on From Rico Dowdle

At this point, we and others have written ad nauseam about the Carolina Panthers losing Rico Dowdle. It feels like a foregone conclusion with how the 2025 season ended before Dowdle officially hit free agency.

The question now is not whether or not the Panthers will lose Dowdle, but rather, the question is how much that will affect them. Losing a lead back and someone who had the 14th-most rushing yards despite not starting at all for several weeks is impactful.

However, according to some new data provided by Ian Hartitz, losing Dowdle might not be bad. In fact, the Panthers may not lose much when he walks in free agency.

Rico Dowdle's exit may not hamper Panthers at all

Carolina Panthers running back Rico Dowdle (5) during pregame warm ups before the NFC Wild Card Round | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

The traditional numbers and eye test, for much of the 2025 season, suggested the Panthers ought to trade Chuba Hubbard and extend Rico Dowdle. That's definitely not happening now, nor should it.

Dowdle was a complete no-show at the end of the year. Hubbard was not much better, but he's already under contract and isn't unhappy with the team, either. And according to this data on yards after contact, Dowdle may have been truly overrated.

The running back made a name for himself by running over defenders. He wasn't fast and shifty, so he didn't get around them much for the Panthers, but he did run through them. In traditional stats, he ranked 13th in yards after contact.

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Carolina Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard (30) runs on to the field before the game | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

That suggests he was good at finding yards when he shouldn't have, but a more refined look at it tells a very different story. By percentage of carries with three or more yards after contact, Dowdle was 47th out of 49 ranked running backs.

Percentage of carries with 3+ yards after contact in 2025 (min. 100 carries) pic.twitter.com/inP84qWjOS
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 22, 2026

He got more than three yards of contact on just 35.2% of carries. He was not quite the bellcow that he seemed to be, and the Panthers' offensive line might've been more responsible for his success than we thought.

That alone would be reason enough to let a free agent walk and try to replace him. Combine that with the fact that Chuba Hubbard ranked 20th and had three or more yards after contact on 42.5% of his rushes justifies the Panthers' likely decision to let Dowdle go and keep Hubbard.

This does not solve the Panthers' backup RB problem, though. Jonathon Brooks is a wild card with his health, and Trevor Etienne is not very good, either. The options in free agency might just be smarter, though.

J.K. Dobbins is a free agent, and he outranked Hubbard by one in this metric. So is Rachaad White, who outranked Dobbins by one. Isiah Pacheco (10th in the NFL in this stat) is a free agent, too. All would make fine Hubbard complements.

Even if the Panthers don't get someone ranked better than Hubbard, they can do better than Dowdle. Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt were all better than Dowdle in this stat and are free agents.

Dowdle was a nice value signing last offseason, but the Panthers can and should do better in 2026.