Panthers Still Impossibly Not Favorites for 2026 NFC South Title

With free agency causing some NFL rosters to look very different from 2025, betting lines are shifting for who can win the Super Bowl, the conferences, and each division. Vegas has the right lines for some divisions; the Eagles are favored to win the NFC East, the Ravens are favored to win the AFC North, but some lines are clearly off, especially the line for the NFC South.

The Carolina Panthers have one of the best free agency classes in the league, completely revamping their defense and retooling some of the offensive line as well. The sportsbooks don’t seem to take too much stock in that, though, as the Panthers still have the third-best odds to win the NFC South.

Panthers Not Even Second in Odds to Win the Division

Bryce Young against the Saint — Dec 14, 2025; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) walks off the field after losing against the New Orleans Saints 20-17 in the fourth quarter at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images | Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

Despite winning the division in 2025, and then improving the defense exponentially on paper, the Panthers have the third-best odds on DraftKings (+320) and the fourth-best odds on FanDuel (+370).

On DraftKings, the Panthers are behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints. In FanDuel, the Panthers are dead last, but the Atlanta Falcons have the second-best odds, not the Saints.

Why the Panthers Shouldn’t Be Such Major Underdogs

Jalen Coker after scoring a touchdow — Jan 10, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Jalen Coker (18) celebrates his score with fans during the second half of the NFC Wild Card Round game between the Carolina Panthers and the Los Angeles Rams at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

It's weird that different teams have the second-best odds, but either way, both books and many others are disrespecting Carolina. The Falcons’ most notable move was signing former Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa to a one-year deal. Tagovailoa was released by the Dolphins because of his underwhelming play and injury history.

Tagovailoa has one playoff game of experience, and in that game, he threw for 199 yards, one touchdown, and one interception; he was simply pedestrian. The Falcons don’t have any certainty in their quarterback room at all with Tua and Michael Penix Jr, who has also been underwhelming and has an injury history.

Who will win QB1 between Michael Penix Jr. & Tua Tagovailoa? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/CfrCKNWlGA
— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) March 13, 2026

The New Orleans Saints are dangerous, admittedly. QB Tyler Shough showed real promise towards the end of last season, the Saints just signed RB Travis Etienne, and their defense is very good. arguably a top 10 unit.

If the Saints were to win the division next year, though, it would feel ahead of schedule. Shough still has a lot to prove, and while Ettienne feels like an upgrade from Alvin Kamara, he still showed inconsistencies down the stretch of last season with the Jaguars.

The Saints did lose some depth, and lost it to the Panthers, losing Luke Fortner, who was New Orleans’s starting center for the last 10 weeks of the year. The Saints’ receiving room also took a hit last year, trading away Rasheed Shaheed to the Seahawks.

The Panthers feel like they have more questions answered than the Saints do right now, especially in the pass game.

Tampa Is the Consensus Favorite to Win NFC South

Dave Canales and Todd Bowle — Dec 21, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales greets Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles after a game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Tampa Bay took a nosedive towards the end of last season. While the Bucs did beat Carolina in the final regular-season game, they lost seven of their last nine games.

Boom 💥

📺: ESPN pic.twitter.com/HRqbKBjsZo
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) January 3, 2026

The Bucs didn’t get better so far this offseason; they’ve gotten worse, losing LB Lavonte David, RB Rachaad White, CB Jamel Dean, and their franchise wide receiver, Mike Evans.

At this point, it feels like the Bucs may have hit their ceiling with this core, and while they still have young talent such as RB Bucky Irving and WR Emeka Egbuka, it seems unlikely they won't be a mediocre team in 2026.

Final Thoughts

The Panthers are the ones making the noise this offseason, more than the rest of the division, and more than most of the league. Bryce Young has shown that while he can be inconsistent, he thrives in the biggest moments, which the Saints and Falcons can’t say about their QBs right now.

The division race should be exciting, but if the Panthers keep improving, and draft well next month, a second consecutive NFC South title feels even more realistic.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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