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How Patriots Are Primed For Success When Salary Cap Drops in 2021

Good news out of New England, as the Patriots will likely have a lot of money to play with in a strong free agent class next year.

Before the strike of COVID-19, many New England Patriots fans and enthusiasts were eying 2021 and it's free agent class. After all, the Patriots were slated to likely have the second most cap space in the league next offseason, per Over The Cap. Therefore, much speculation existed as to whether New England could load up on big names and meanwhile save money by having a cheap quarterback (ie. Jarrett Stidham or Cam Newton). 

However, after the unprecedented times this country and the world is now facing, the NFL will not be immune to financial hardship and losses during this time. For many months, many speculated just how much the salary cap for each squad would be impacted by some of the losses incurred by the league. For a while, it looked as if the magical shopping spree that the Patriots were seemingly destined to go on in 2021 would be squandered. However, a report by NBC Sports Boston's Tom Curran, and later a report by Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, both came to notify New England fans that the spending spree is back on. 

Football Economics 

To explain the situation, we must dive into a little bit of football economics here, as players receive 48% of the league revenue (that includes everything from TV deals, to NFL films shows, to parking, concessions, and ticket sales). Even with a limited attendance policy for fans, stadiums and teams will not even come remotely close to matching last year's ticket sales. Same goes for parking (which will already be free at Gillette Stadium this season) and concessions. 

That 48% of league revenue is distributed evenly to all 32 teams in order to pay their players, acquire new ones, restructure contracts, etc. However, with lowered league revenue, that number figure that is handed out each season to all 32 teams becomes smaller and takes a hit. That leaves teams with less money to pay their players and acquire new ones, potentially even forcing a large chunk of players to take less money than they normally would. 

However, good news came, as the league will likely be finding ways to stretch this hit out among several seasons. Finding ways to move money around to make sure the salary cap number in 2020 of $198.2 million, per team, does not all of a sudden sink to levels in the $130-140 million dollar area. Instead, the league will make sure the cap won't drop below $175 million per team.

While this is good news, the salary cap is still projected to drop a whopping $23.2 million per team (if it drops to it's lowest figure of $175 million). That leaves a lot of teams in salary cap danger. The lower numbers will mitigate many team's activity during the free agency period, resulting in more conservative approaches by front offices. However, it will by no stretch mitigate the Patriots' ability to have a normal offseason. In fact, it will likely be the first time in a while that New England has more money than a large chunk of the league. That should frighten other NFL squads. 

Patriots Could Reap Benefits 

Mike Florio pointed out in his report that even in the worst case scenario New England is slated to have $45 million in cap space in 2021. 

Even if that $7 million is devoted to pandemic replacements, and even if Newton earns every penny of his incentives (which mean that the Patriots will have won the Super Bowl in 2020), the Patriots would still have $45 million in cap space, under the minimum cap of $175 million.

The odds of all those "what ifs" coming to fruition are rather low, therefore, the Patriots are looking at somewhere above $45 million in cap space next season. With 55 players already signed for next season, totaling to $124 million in already committed money for New England, they will be able to retain key pieces and potentially add some others. 

Along with that, some of the other teams that may find themselves with sticky financial problems next offseason might be forced to let go of some more expensive, big name players and release them to the free agency pool. This is just one more way in which the Patriots can benefit. By having enough cash to potentially clean up the scraps and benefit from more needy teams. 

Therefore, with much uncertainty in today's world, New England fans can take comfort in the fact that their team will almost certainly be in great phenomenal shape come next offseason. Just in time, as they will start to reload and build another multi-year championship contender after their 20 year reign with Tom Brady came to an end.