Do Broncos or Patriots Have Better Defense?

The New England Patriots are one win away from a shot at the Lombardi Trophy. But to book their Super Bowl LX tickets, they’ll have to slay a demon they’ve never beaten before: the Denver Broncos, in Denver, in the playoffs.

New England punched its AFC Championship Game ticket with a gritty 28–16 win over the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium in the Divisional Round. Meanwhile, the Broncos survived and advanced with a wild 33–30 overtime thriller against the Buffalo Bills.

Now comes the final showdown. As the No. 1 seed, Denver will host the AFC title game, setting the stage for a heavyweight showdown. It’s the Patriots’ first trip back to the conference championship since 2018 — and their 14th appearance this century. One more win, and it’s Super Bowl or bust.

Defense will decide the AFC Champion

The Patriots and Broncos haven’t seen much of each other lately, squaring off just twice since 2017. The most recent meeting came on Christmas Eve 2023 — and it ended with New England stealing a 26–23 win in Denver thanks to a clutch 56-yard Chad Ryland bomb as time expired. Bailey Zappe was under center that night, not Drake Maye, which makes this rematch a whole different ballgame.

Defensively, this is shaping up like a straight-up rock fight. Denver allowed just 18.3 points per game during the 2025 regular season and finished No. 3 in the NFL in scoring defense (311 points allowed). The Patriots weren’t far behind, giving up 18.8 points per game and ranking fourth with 320 total points allowed. In other words, expect punts, not fireworks.

Jan 18, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots defensive lineman Khyiris Tonga (95) sacks Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) in the fourth quarter in an AFC Divisional Round game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

The Broncos did give up 30 points to Josh Allen and the Bills in the Divisional Round, but don’t let that fool you. This defense is still elite across the board: No. 2 in yards allowed per game, No. 1 in yards per play, No. 2 in touchdowns allowed, No. 5 in EPA per play allowed, and No. 3 in points per game. And looming over it all is reigning Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II, who is kind of shutdown corner Drake Maye has to locate pre-snap like a heat-seeking missile.

New England’s red-zone defense was a weak spot in the regular season, ranking 23rd in opponent TD percentage. But come playoff time? Flip the switch. The Patriots have allowed just one touchdown on six red-zone trips so far, including holding Houston to one TD on four trips inside the 20 last week. It’s not an exaggeration to say that the defense played a major role in the Pats’ Divisional victory.

History, though, leans hard toward Denver. The Patriots and Broncos have met five times in the postseason, and New England has only cracked the code once: a 2011 home win. The other four losses all came at Mile High, including two AFC Championship heartbreakers at the hands of Peyton Manning in 2013 and 2015.

This AFC Championship matchup isn’t just about a Super Bowl berth, it’s about exorcising demons in the thin air of Denver.