What Happens If Patriots Trade Down? Mapping Every Realistic Scenario

This week, New England Patriots executive Eliot Wolf didn't shut down the idea of trading draft picks. Leaving the door open, the executive vice president of player personnel talked about how it's a generally weaker draft class at some spots compared to years past, and how the Patriots are prepping for the draft.

"It's tougher to predict, but it's not different than – again, last year, we picked at the beginning of the second round," Wolf said. "So, it's still the same process, and we're still evaluating all those players. In this round of meetings, we didn't look at (Indiana quarterback Fernando) Mendoza this time around, but we're evaluating everybody because you never know exactly what's going to happen."

Currently sitting at 31st overall, will they decide to trade out of the pick? Obviously, it would depend on how the board falls. The Patriots' biggest needs -- offensive tackle depth, edge rusher, backup tight end -- may not be on the board when it's time for the team to hand in the card.

The Patriots could obviously stand pat and take a player in the first round. But where's the fun in that?

Whether it's for a future pick, a player to help this season, or just trying to screw a division rival in the process, here's a few trade avenues the defending AFC champions could take when the NFL Draft gets underway from Pittsburgh on April 23.

QB Needy Team Wants Ty Simpson

Jan 1, 2026; Pasadena, CA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson (15) looks to pass against the Indiana Hoosiers in the first half of the 2026 Rose Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at Rose Bowl Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The ideal trade down here is with the Arizona Cardinals, who have the 34rd overall pick. Getting rid of Kyler Murray this past offseason, the Cardinals are certainly in the market for a new quarterback (unless they want to run it back with former Patriots captain Jacoby Brissett). The reason why Arizona would decide to trade up to snag a quarterback -- likely Alabama's Ty Simpson -- is that another QB-needy team sits one spot ahead of them.

The New York Jets, who have Geno Smith back under center this year, are also in the market for a new quarterback. It's much more likely that the Patriots do business with the Cardinals instead of their division rival, especially for a position of that much importance.

Simpson is projected to be taken around that spot anyway. Unless a team decides to spring on a mid-first round selection of the Crimson Tide quarterback, the Patriots could eventually find themselves stuck in the middle of the Simpson sweepstakes next week.

Run At EDGE, OT Becomes Too Much

Texas Tech's Romello Height celebrates his sack against UCF during a Big 12 Conference football game, Saturday, Nov. 15, 2025, at Jones AT&T Stadium. | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It's a deep class for pass rushers. The same can't be said for offensive tackles, where there's a steep drop off in terms of talent on the first day and the next two. If teams above the Patriots decide to pounce on either of those positions, both of need for New England for 2026 and beyond, it might be a wise decision to just pack up and move on to the next round instead of overpaying for a player.

There may be around eight edge rushers who could go off the board on the first day of the draft. If most of those go in front of New England's pick, trying to move down and acquire a day two pick could be the best course of action. You'll be able to snag another player in the second round, but don't become a copycat and overdraft a second round talent in the first round.

Don't Draft Just To Draft

Sep 14, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel greets Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel after a game at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

If the Patriots go into the first round with, say, eight players they'd like to pick and all eight are off the board, trade down. This goes back to the run on edge rushers and offensive tackles that could happen. If you don't like a player in the first round, but think he'd better suited for a second round slot (and a second round contract), find a way to move down. The team did that in 2020, when they traded with the Los Angeles Chargers and selected safety Kyle Dugger in the second round.

There are perfect fits for New England at the top of the second round. If you feel like Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez or Tennessee wide receiver Chris Brazzell are players that could impact the team in 2026, but you don't feel like they warrant a first round grade, don't overthink it. Work the phones and find a way to move down the board.

Wolf was a master at moving up and down the draft last year, and it netted the Patriots one of their best draft classes in franchise history. Let's see how the board unfolds in 2026, and if that magic can continue.

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