AFC Executive: Raiders Dodged a Bullet Losing Ben Johnson to the Bears

And one person inside the Lions organization thinks the former offensive coordinator could be Josh McDaniels 2.0.

Dec 15, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson during warm ups before a game against the Buffalo Bills at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-Imagn Images / David Reginek-Imagn Images

It is imperative to look back at the Las Vegas Raiders' not hiring former Detroit Lions offensive coordinator and now Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson not with the eye of revisionist history but with a frank microscope of reality.

There is absolutely no doubt that inside the organization, around the NFL, and even within the Detroit Lions, the expectation was that Johnson would take the Raiders job.

So why is Johnson not the new coach of the Silver & Black?

I received texts, phone calls and emails from people across the league, including from Raider Nation, using terms such as “WTF,” “WOW,” and “unbelievable,” among others.

But I would like to take a different angle.

Did the Raiders dodge a bullet with Johnson going to the Windy City?

Let me explain.

I was writing an article about the presumed next Raiders coach, attempting to gather as much information as possible.

Let me be clear: Not one person around the league had anything derogatory to say about Johnson personally or as an offensive coach. He was, and is, universally respected.

However, when I followed up, many who have worked with him had reservations about how he would transition from offensive coordinator to a head coach.

For example, someone in the Lions organization told me, “I love everything about Ben, but he is an introvert. He does well with Dan [Campbell], who is a leader of men, and he operates in the mad scientist role. Unlike Aaron [Glenn, Lions DC], I am not as certain that he can lead an entire team.”

They went on to add another key remark: “I can totally see how he and Tom [Brady] hit it off so well, but so did Tom and Josh [McDaniels]. He is a great guy, an offensive genius like Josh, but also more of an introvert, and I think he is a Josh McDaniels 2.0.”

That was concerning.

When I pressed harder, among other people, to figure out what the Raiders presumably would be getting, the comparisons remained.

So much so that early in the weekend, when all signs pointed to Johnson and an expectation of when, and not if, I had been tipped off about a particular coach that would have joined him in Las Vegas.

My wife, Shannon, and I have known him for years, so she and I reached out.

He was excited about the opportunity to come to Vegas but offered one caveat, “Ben is so smart and talented it would be a real honor, but we will have to get a hammer as a defensive coordinator.  Without Dan [Campbell] or Aaron [Glenn], somebody is going to have to be the hammer on that staff, the emotion guy, the leader of men, and it can’t be a position coach.”

When asked Saturday by my colleague Michael France about Johnson, I shared some things I had heard.

Now, let’s not pretend that this article is my attempt at revisionist history.

The Raiders wanted him.

The Raiders didn’t get him.

But like that old country and western song, sometimes you thank God for unanswered prayers.

After the news broke that Johnson was finalizing a deal to become the Bears head coach, I got a phone call from an AFC executive.

He told me, “I love Ben, and I wouldn’t even think twice about making him the highest-paid offensive coordinator in the NFL, but the Raiders just dodged a bullet. A fully guaranteed deal for six years with a guy that I am not sure can lead an entire team was risky. Love Ben and love Tom, but Mark Davis and the Raiders just dodged a bullet.”

For nine days, Johnson was the front-runner and heir apparent to succeed Antonio Pierce.

I said and reported that because it was 100% true.

The reality is that a good person and great coordinator has the opportunity to grow into more. But it doesn’t guarantee success.

In a town known for gambling, the Raiders were willing to bet millions on Johnson. Still, perhaps this is another situation in which the jukebox in the corner of another country and western dive bar is prophetic as it echoes out the words, “Sometimes I thank God for unanswered prayers.”

I hope Johnson does well.  I love to see good people succeed and prosper, and no one questions that.

I also want to see the good people around the Raiders do well.

Heading into the search they wanted someone with experience.  

The Raiders are an iconic franchise, and it is NOT the place guys come to learn how to be a head coach, in my opinion.

The Raiders were “Tomlined” by Johnson, and it isn’t hard to see how or why.

But this hire is a legacy hire. This hire is more significant than any in a very long time.

Everyone in this city understands that winners get high attention when a big bet pays off. The house wants to make everyone feel like they can do it.

But the house is undefeated.

Perhaps the Raiders need to avoid the gamble for the next shiny item and stick to what they know: a strong leader with experience.

Josh McDaniels failed, Pierce failed, and both for different reasons and certainly are not alone in the blame.

Perhaps the Raiders dodged a bullet. Johnson may be the next great coach, but the odds were against him.

With the legacy of Mark Davis and the Raiders on the line, perhaps getting an experienced and proven coach is the right move.

The more you eliminate question marks, the more you hedge your bet for success.

Tom Brady, Richard Seymour, and Mark Davis won’t be asking us for advice, and neither should they.  

But in a town known for gamblers, the more you can hedge against risk, the better your odds.

In the NFL, the odds are against nearly everyone.

Every NFL team passed on the kid from Michigan until finally the New England Patriots took a chance.

That chance parlayed into the greatest player of all time in the NFL Tom Brady.

Brady kept that disrespect in the pit of his stomach.  It motivated him, and it drove him.

The Raiders might not need the bright shiny new toy that everyone wanted.

Perhaps, an experienced coach who a lot of people aren’t rushing to hire is.  

Could it be a Pete Carroll or a Steve Spagnuolo?

Great and proven coaches. The sexiest picks? No, but winners who are proven.

If the Raiders decide they want the young, up-and-coming offensive mind, as they did with Johnson, don’t look past Tampa Bay Buccaneers OC Liam Coen.

The Raider Nation is tired of the sexy. They know the ultimate prize is winning. No matter who delivers it.

The Raiders not signing Johnson is not the end of the world, but a part of the process.

If whomever they hire wins, no one will care. Just Win Baby.

Perhaps the Raiders dodged a bullet, and perhaps the song echoing in the Henderson headquarters should be, “Sometimes I thank God for unanswered prayers.”

Ensure you follow on X (Twitter) @HondoCarpenter and IG @HondoSr and never miss another breaking news story again.

Please let us know your thoughts when you like our Facebook page WHEN YOU CLICK RIGHT HERE