Ceiling and Floor: Raiders’ Mendoza Has To Earn His Stripes

The Las Vegas Raiders shifted the outlook of their franchise when they took the best quarterback prospect in last year's draft class with the first overall pick.

The Raiders have now surrounded their team with plenty of championship pedigree. From their roster construction and head coach hiring to the team's owners. It's clear the Raiders are tired of mediocrity and have done all they can to surround their franchise with success.

Las Vegas Raiders GM John Spytek, and minority owner Tom Brady | Darrell Craig Harris, On SI

I don't think it'll lead to success right away, but they're definitely taking the steps they need to get there. Fernando Mendoza is a big part of that equation, with him adding a National Championship and a Heisman Trophy to the quarterback room.

Unlike other first-round picks in recent memory, the Raiders have made it clear they don't want him to be their starter right away. With that in mind, what are some realistic expectations for his floor and ceiling for the 2026 NFL season?

Floor

Aug 26, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones (L) talks to former NFL player Tom Brady (R) before the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Tom Brady and Klint Kubiak are on the same page about how they should handle Mendoza's development, and if the Kirk Cousins signing doesn't say enough, Brady has said the quiet part out loud.

Mendoza's already a humble guy, but they want to drive this humility home even further. The plan should be that Mendoza sees the field whenever he's ready, and the coaching staff feels he's surpassed Cousins as a better option for winning.

Las Vegas Raiders QB Kirk Cousins | Darrell Craig Harris, On SI

However, that idealized plan doesn't account for exterior pressures the Raiders will face if Cousins isn't playing well. That's why if he does play well, I can realistically see Mendoza take over near the end of the season if they're firmly out of the playoff race, or no playing time at all if Cousins has them in line for a postseason appearance.

His floor, if he plays at all, is realistically around 1,100 passing yards and five touchdowns. Depending on how many starts he gets, his likelihood of throwing interceptions increases. I'd like to think he can get through his rookie season without turning the ball over much.

Ceiling

Fernando Mendoza | Darrell Craig Harris, On SI

The last quarterback taken first overall to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award was Kyler Murray in 2019, and I think that's already out of reach for Mendoza. However, if he's given as many starts as Murray had in his rookie season, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in those conversations.

If he gets 16 starts next season, I think 2,300 passing yards is well within reach, and double-digit touchdowns shouldn't be far off either. This would only happen if Cousins gets injured or plays that badly, which is unlikely.

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