Why Jaguars' Battle is Geno Smith's Make-or-Break Game

Things haven't gone as planned for Geno Smith and the Las Vegas Raiders. When the team traded away a third-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft to acquire him and subsequently signed him to a two-year, $75 million extension, they thought they'd be getting a veteran gunslinger who could lead an explosive offense and help bring them back to postseason relevancy.

Instead, through the first seven games of the season, the Raiders find themselves in the exact same spot as they were last year: 2-5. Smith has been more responsible for Las Vegas' losses than its wins.

So far, he's thrown for 1,417 yards on 65.8 percent passing, with just seven touchdowns to 10 interceptions.

His turnovers have been absolutely backbreaking for the Raiders. There are some reasons for optimism that Las Vegas can be a better team in the remainder of the season than it has shown so far. Ashton Jeanty has flashed the promise that made him the sixth-overall pick in the draft, the roster is getting healthier, the defense has held up surprisingly well, and some improved play from Geno Smith could significantly change the Raiders' fortunes.

The dichotomy of Geno Smith

Las Vegas Raiders, NFL, Kansas City Chiefs, Geno Smith — Oct 19, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith (7) passes the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first quarter of the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

1. Geno Smith +102 to throw 2+ touchdowns

Geno Smith came into the 2025 NFL season perceived as a borderline top-10 quarterback in the NFL. In his time with the Seattle Seahawks, he had shown that he could be a lethal playmaker under center, who had the arm talent to make practically any throw needed, the audacity to create big gains, and the mobility to evade pressure.

None of that has shown up for the Las Vegas Raiders this year, except the audacity, but not in a good way. Still, his gunslinger mentality has given him two games this season with two or more touchdowns, and Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly haven't given up on their QB yet. He should have plenty of opportunities to meet this line from FanDuel against the Jacksonville Jaguars, especially if his team falls behind early in the contest.

2. Geno Smith +106 to not throw an interception

While Smith's arm and production still have to be respected, it's impossible to ignore the stats that show he's been the most turnover-prone quarterback in the league this season. He's currently second in the NFL in interceptions, but that's only because the Miami Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa has played two more games.

In seven weeks, Smith has already tossed 10 picks this year. He's only gone two weeks without an interception. He'll have to be extra careful against the Jaguars' ball-hawking defense if he wants to notch another clean game, especially if Devin Lloyd is back in the mix. These two contrasting lines from FanDuel truly show the volatile nature of Smith as a quarterback this season.

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