Why Low Expectations Could Be the Raiders’ Secret Weapon in Week 11

It might not seem like it by their record, but the Las Vegas Raiders have shown some signs of improvement since their Week 8 bye. While they dropped both games since the break, they played two potential playoff teams extremely close and displayed some signs of growth in the process.

In Week 9, they nearly toppled the Jacksonville Jaguars behind a resurgent performance from Geno Smith and the rest of the offense. The Raiders scored 29 points and gained 331 total yards in the game. Smith had arguably his best game of the season, throwing for 284 yards on 29-of-39 passing, with four touchdowns to just one interception.

Las Vegas lost in overtime after electing to go for two and failing instead of settling for a game-tying extra point.

The Raiders followed that up by nearly upsetting the Denver Broncos, the current leader of the AFC West. This time, the defense stepped up, holding Bo Nix and company to just 10 points and 220 total yards. Unfortunately, the offense and special teams weren't able to do their part, with kicker Daniel Carlson missing a 48-yard field goal that would have tied the game. Instead, Las Vegas lost, 10-7, falling to just 2-7 on the season.

Las Vegas Raiders, NFL, Denver Broncos, Geno Smith, Ashton Jeanty — Nov 6, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith (7) hands the ball to running back Ashton Jeanty (2) during the first half at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

What can the Raiders do fully unleashed?

The Las Vegas Raiders' season ended long ago, but their latest loss to the Denver Broncos was likely the final nail in the coffin. With the New York Jets upsetting the Cleveland Browns in the same week, the Raiders are now tied with the second-worst record in the NFL with just two wins through 10 weeks.

At this point, it'd behoove Las Vegas to finish the rest of the season without another win, giving itself the best chance possible to land a transformative prospect in the 2026 NFL Draft. They're currently in line for another top-six pick and could climb the board if some of the other bottom-feeders in the league stumble backward into a win or two the rest of the way.

Still, due to the win-now moves they made in the offseason, fans and analysts are going to want to see some tangible signs of growth from the Raiders, even if they don't get another victory this year. FanDuel has them as home underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys, spotting them 3.5 points on the spread and listing them at +160 on the moneyline.

Las Vegas Raiders Pete Carroll | Darrell Craig Harris, On SI

Dallas' defense has been one of the worst units in the entire league, opening the door for encouraging performances from Geno Smith, Ashton Jeanty, and the rest of Las Vegas' offense. The over/under is currently set at 50.5 points.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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